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3 Big Things Today, October 1

Grains, Beans Mixed Overnight; Export Inspections Mostly Higher Week to Week.

1. Grains, Beans Mixed Overnight After Several USDA Reports

Grains and soybeans were mixed in overnight trading as investors soak in several reports from the USDA and await any news on trade relations with China.

The USDA released its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that showed corn inventories on September 1 at 2.11 billion bushels, below trade estimates for 2.43 billion bushels. Soybean stocks came in at 913 million bushels vs. forecasts for 2.32 billion bushels.

Wheat production was seen at 1.962 billion bushels in the 2019-2020 marketing year that started on June 1, close to the average analyst guess of 1.968 billion bushels.

Soybean production was pegged at 4.43 billion bushels, down from trade estimates of 4.52 billion and the previous government forecast for 4.55 billion bushels.

The USDA also released its Crop Progress Report yesterday, which showed 11% of U.S. corn was harvested as of Sunday. That’s behind the prior five-year average of 19%.

Only 43% of the crop was mature at the start of the week compared with the average of 73% for this time of year.

About 7% of soybeans were collected, well behind the normal 20%, the USDA said. Fifty-five percent of the crop was dropping leaves vs. the average of 76%.

Some 90% of the spring wheat crop was in the bin at the start of this week, when normally the harvest would be about finished.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1¾¢ to $3.86¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for September delivery lost 2½¢ to $4.93¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures declined 4¾¢ to $4.10¼ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 1¼¢ to $9.07¼ a bushel overnight. Soy meal rose 60¢ to $301.60 a short ton, while soybean oil gained 0.14¢ to 29.22¢ a pound.

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2. Corn, Soybean Inspections Rise Week to Week, While Wheat Examinations Decline

Inspections of corn and soybeans for overseas delivery were higher in the seven days that ended on September 26, while wheat assessments declined, according to the USDA.

Corn inspections last week were reported at 399,736 metric tons, up from the 235,389 tons assessed a week earlier. Still, that’s well below the 1.38 million tons inspected during the same week last year.

Soybean examinations came in at 982,288 metric tons, up from 926,247 tons a week earlier and the 630,249 tons assessed a year earlier, the agency said.

Wheat inspections totaled 466,506 metric tons last week, down from 488,647 tons the previous week, but higher than the 371,991 tons inspected the same seven-day period in 2018.

Since the start of the marketing year on September 1, inspections of corn are now up to 1.53 million metric tons, well below the 4.46 million tons the USDA inspected during the same time frame a year earlier.

Soybean assessments stand at 3.15 million metric tons, ahead of the year-earlier total of 2.97 million tons at this time last year.

Wheat inspections, since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1, are now up to 8.49 million metric tons. That’s well ahead of the previous year’s total of 6.92 million tons at this time of year.

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3. Flash Flood Warnings in Effect Along Band From New Mexico to Michigan

Thunderstorms are raging across much of the Midwest this morning, as a band from southern New Mexico into central Michigan is under a flash flood watch, according to the National Weather Service.

“A strong storm system moving slowly across the central states will produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along a broad swath from New Mexico to Michigan through Tuesday,” the NWS said in report early this morning.

In central Iowa, widespread rain is expected into early Wednesday. Showers started this morning, and the storm will gradually spread southeast across the state. The precipitation could lead to flash flooding, as the ground in many areas is already saturated from recent rainfall, the agency said.

In Wisconsin, meanwhile, 1 inch to 2½ inches are expected with some areas receiving up to 5 inches, the NWS said.

Thunderstorms in the state may turn severe this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and large hail the main risks.

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