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3 Big Things Today, October 9, 2019

Soybeans Higher in Overnight Trading; USDA Expected to Cut Production Forecasts

1. Soybeans Higher Overnight Ahead of WASDE, Winter Weather

Soybeans were higher in overnight trading as investors prepare for tomorrow’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report while watching a storm that’s heading into the Dakotas.

Grains were little changed.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its monthly WASDE report tomorrow and is expected to lower both its soybean and corn production estimates. The agency also is projected to lower its ending stockpiles forecasts.

A winter storm is heading into the Dakotas starting today and is expected to bring more than a foot of snow and strong, gusty winds.

Only 15% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, behind the average pace of 27%, according to the Department of Agriculture. About 14% of soybeans were collected, well behind the normal 34% for this time of year.

In North Dakota, none of the corn crop was collected at the start of this week, while only 8% of soybeans were in the bin. In South Dakota, 2% of corn was harvested as of Sunday and 5% of soybeans were collected.

Soybean futures for November delivery jumped 7¢ to $9.27½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose $2 to $308.90 a short ton while soybean oil added 0.12¢ to 29.94¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery fell ½¢ to $3.95¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for September delivery fell ¾¢ to $4.99½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures were unchanged at $4.10¼ a bushel.


2. USDA Likely Will Lower Production, Yield Estimates in WASDE Report Thursday

The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report tomorrow at noon in Washington and analysts expect the agency will lower its production, yield, and stockpiles estimates for both corn and soybeans.

Corn production is pegged at 13.684 billion bushels on yield of 167.5 bushels an acre, analysts forecast, according to researcher Allendale.

That’s down from September’s USDA outlook for output of 13.799 billion bushels on yield of 168.2 bushels an acre.

Stockpiles are pegged by analysts at 1.784 billion bushels, down from the previous month’s outlook for 2.19 billion bushels.

Soybean production, meanwhile, is seen at 3.583 billion bushels on yield of 47.3 bushels an acre, Allendale said.

That’s down from the government’s September forecast for output of 3.633 billion bushels and yield of 47.9 bushels an acre.

Inventories of the oilseeds are projected at 521 million bushels by analysts, well below the 640 million expected by the government last month.


3. Winter Storms Bearing Down on Dakotas Will Bring Up To 14 Inches of Snow

Winter storms are preparing to blast parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska today, bringing heavy snow and “very cold temperatures” to the western Corn Belt, according to the National Weather Service.

Almost all of North Dakota and the western half of South Dakota are in a winter storm warning. Total accumulations in the region are forecast from 6 to 14 inches, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Wind gusts are pegged as high as 45 mph.

“A strong cold front and upper-level system will cross the region through Friday, bringing unseasonably cold temperatures, snowfall, and gusty winds to much of the area,” the agency said. “Steady or slowly falling temperatures are expected behind a cold front pushing through the area.”

The NWS said precipitation is expected in western South Dakota this afternoon and will move east this evening. Any rain will turn to snow overnight into Thursday, with lighter snow forecast through Friday morning.

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