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3 Big Things Today, September 11

Corn, Beans Little Changed Overnight; Mexico Buys More Ag Products, Patience Sought on China.

1. Corn, Beans Slightly Lower Ahead of Thursday’s WASDE

Corn and beans were little changed overnight ahead of tomorrow’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, while wheat futures declined.

Analysts polled by Reuters are expecting corn yield at 167.2 bushels an acre with production at 13.672 billion bushels, and soybean yield at 47.2 bushels per acre and output at 3.577 billion bushels.

The USDA last month projected corn yield of 169.5 bushels an acre and production at 13.901 billion bushels. Soybean yield was pegged by the USDA at 48.5 bushels an acre with output at 3.68 billion bushels.

Scouts on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated national corn yield well below the government’s projections at 163.3 bushels an acre and production at 13.358 billion bushels. Soybean yield was seen at 46.1 bushels an acre with output at 3.497 billion bushels.

Late planting has left crops vulnerable to damage should an early freeze arrive this year, which likely would reduce yield and ultimately output further.

Still, prices are being capped by questions about demand for U.S. supplies amid the ongoing trade war with China, which has dented soybean shipments, and expectations for rainfall this week in much of the central Midwest.

Corn futures for December delivery fell ¾¢ to $3.60¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery lost 2¢ to $8.69 a bushel in overnight trading. Soy meal dropped $1 to $297.10 a short ton, while soybean oil added 0.01¢ to 28.54¢ a pound.

Wheat for September delivery declined 3¢ to $4.79¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 3½¢ to $4.00¼ a bushel.


2. Mexico Makes More Purchases; Patience Needed on U.S-China Trade, White House Adviser Says

Trade is in focus as Mexico stepped in and purchased U.S. agricultural products, while a senior White House adviser said the trade war with China will take some time.

Sales of corn, soybeans, and meal to Mexico were announced on Tuesday.

The country bought 278,200 metric tons of corn for delivery in the marketing year that started on September 1, the USDA said. Mexico also purchased 138,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the same year.

A sale of 195,750 tons of soybean cake and meal will be split with 155,000 tons scheduled for delivery in the 2019-2020 year and 40,750 tons for delivery in 2020-2021, the agency said in its report. The marketing year for soybean meal and cake starts on October 1.

The sales follow a Mexican purchase of 651,670 metric tons of corn that was announced on Monday, of which 590,820 was for delivery in the current year, while the rest will be delivered in the 2020-2021 marketing year, the USDA said.

On the U.S.-China trade front, meanwhile, White House Adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC that farmers, consumers, and businessowners need to be patient if they want to “get a great result” from the ongoing trade war.

Tariffs imposed on both Chinese goods into the U.S. and American goods into China have risen since the start of the month.

The U.S. implemented a 15% duty on another $125 billion worth of Chinese goods on September 1, while levies on $250 billion in items from the Asian nation will rise to 30% from its current level of 25% on October 1 if a deal isn’t signed.

Total exports of soybeans in the 2018-2019 marketing year that ended on August 31 likely totaled 46.3 million metric tons, an 18% decline from the previous 12-month period, according to the USDA. Corn shipments are pegged at 53.3 million tons, down from 57.5 million the prior year.

Navarro, however, said the tariffs on China are “working beautifully” and that they’re the only assurance the U.S. has that leaders from the Asian nation will continue to “negotiate in good faith.”

Chinese state media reported overnight that Beijing is expected to purchase U.S. agricultural products as a sign of good faith ahead of meetings that are scheduled next month, though the headline was met with skepticism.


3. Flash Flood Warnings in Effect in Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa This Morning

Flash flood warnings and flood watches are in effect for several counties in northern Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa this morning, according to the National Weather Service.

Radar indicated heavy rain across the region with as much as 3 to 4 inches falling in some locations, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

“An additional area of light to moderate rain will be moving across the area this morning, which may exacerbate any ongoing flooding,” the agency said.

Several strong storms are possible today with higher chances coming in the evening hours. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are forecast west of Interstate 29 today.

The storms are expected to converge into one large storm as they head east overnight, which likely will increase damage from wind and flash flooding, the NWS said.

Farther east, rain also is possible today and tonight in parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely.  

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