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3 Big Things Today, September 5

Crop Futures Higher Overnight; Allendale Survey Shows Output Down From USDA Forecast.

1. Corn, Beans Higher Overnight on Weather Worries

Corn and soybeans were higher in overnight trading amid forecasts for potentially colder and drier weather in the central U.S.

Commodity Weather Group said this week that a drier pattern is expected in parts of the northeastern Midwest until next week. Rainfall, however, is expected to return to parts of Iowa and along the North Dakota-South Dakota border next week, which will limit dryness from spreading.

Donald Keeney, a meteorologist with Maxar, said in a report that he expects rains will favor far northwestern parts of the Corn Belt into the weekend and then build across west-central areas on Sunday.

Temperatures next week in parts of Iowa and Illinois will top out in the mid-70s with lows in the 50s and low-60s. That will slow crop maturity in plants that already were planted late, further putting plants at risk if an early freeze were to hit.

Corn futures for December delivery added 2¾¢ to $3.61¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 1¾¢ to $8.77¼ a bushel. Soy meal gained $1 to $299.50 a short ton, while soybean oil dropped 0.02¢ to 28.97¢ a pound.

Wheat for September delivery added 5¾¢ to $4.66½ a bushel, while Kansas City gained 5¾¢ to $3.90¼ a bushel.


2. Allendale Survey Shows Corn, Bean Production Below USDA’s August Outlook

Allendale said in its annual acreage survey that it expects 2019 corn and soybean production to be below what the USDA forecast last month.

The firm said in its report yesterday that it sees corn output at 13.755 billion bushels on yield of about 167.71 bushels an acre.

Soybean production is pegged at 3.499 billion bushels on yield of 46.13 bushels an acre nationally, Allendale said.

The USDA’s August 12 planted acres were used in the company’s calculations.

In that report, the government pegged corn harvested area at 82 million acres. At the time, it said it expected production of 13.901 billion bushels on yield of 169.5 bushels an acre.

Soybean output was seen by the USDA at 3.68 billion bushels on yield of 48.5 bushels an acre, and harvested area of 75.9 million acres.

The researcher said its survey was conducted from August 19 through August 30 by its brokers and on its website and other social media platforms. The estimates were from calculated yields in 29 states and “ample surveys” gave the firm enough data to project yields in the top 12 states covering 86% of corn production and 83% of soybean output.

In Iowa, Allendale said it sees yield at 192 bushels an acre for corn, up a bushel per acre from USDA’s August projection, and 53 bushels an acre for beans, down from the government’s outlook for 55 bushels an acre.

Illinois fields will yield 178 bushels an acre for corn and 49 bushels an acre for beans vs. the government respective projections last month of 181 bushels and 55 bushels an acre, Allendale said in its report.


3. Dorian Continues to Crawl Up East Coast, Now Lashing Carolinas

Hurricane Dorian is slamming the coast in the Carolinas as it moves north along the U.S. East Coast.

The storm devastated the Bahamas where it killed at least 20 people, according to media reports. In South Carolina, the storm surge could be just shy of a record, topping 10 feet.

Storm surge warnings and hurricane warnings are in effect in parts of the Carolinas into Virginia. Tropical storm watches have been issued all the way north into Massachusetts, including Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard.

The good news is the storm is expected to turn northeast by tonight and move away from land, but that’s after it will move “close to the coast of South Carolina” today, according to the National Weather Service. It’s expected to stay close to the North Carolina coast tonight and Friday, the agency said.

The storm is still a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and even stronger gusts.

In the Midwest, meanwhile, there’s a low chance of thunderstorms north of Interstate 80 in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin today, but no severe weather is expected.

Rain also may fall in parts of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa starting Friday night and continue into the middle part of next week, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

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