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Minor reduction in ag and food revenue under Paris climate agreement

Compared with other developed nations, the United States would feel little impact from climate mitigation efforts modeled on the Paris accord, said two Purdue University researchers on Thursday. They projected revenue for the agriculture and processed food sectors would be just 0.2% lower than if there were no attempt at slowing global warming.

“Both primary agriculture and processed food experience a loss of 0.2%,” wrote research economist Maksym Chepeliev and research professor Dominique van der Mensbrugghe on the Purdue Agricultural Economics Report website. U.S. food prices would be 0.4% higher. Household income in 2030 would be 0.17% lower than the “no climate policy baseline.”

The Biden administration goal of net-zero emissions of greenhouses gases by 2050 “would be just in the range” of the Paris accord plan for limiting the rise in global average temperatures to less than 2°C. above pre-industrial levels, said Chepeliev and van der Mensbrugghe.

“If the United States is part of a globally cooperative effort, estimated welfare losses are mitigated significantly,” said the researchers. The decline in U.S. economic performance would be one-half or even as low as one-ninth of what it would be if each nation took climate action on its own.

The Purdue report is available here.

Produced with FERN, non-profit reporting on food, agriculture, and environmental health.
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