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USDA expects higher corn supplies

WASDE report projects U.S. to use all soybeans grown domestically.

Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Both 2022-23 and 2021-22 corn ending stocks are up from last month. 2022-23 soybean ending stocks are down.

2022/2023 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2022-23 projected ending stocks at 1.470 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.433 billion bushels. USDA’s estimate in June was 1.400 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 230 million bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 214 million bushels today and 280 million bushels in June.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 639 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 644 million and 627 million bushels last month. 

2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2021-22 projected ending stocks at 1.510 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.491 billion bushels and the June estimate of 1.485 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 215 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 215 million bushels today. In June, the USDA’s estimate was 205 million bushels.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at  660 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 658 million and above the June estimate of 655 million bushels.

2022/2023 World Ending Stocks

On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 312.9 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 310.7 mmt. USDA’s June estimate was 310.5 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 99.6 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 99.2 mmt. and 100.5 mmt last month.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 267.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 267.8 mmt. and 266.9 mmt. in June.

2021/2022 World Ending Stocks

On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 312.3 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 311.4 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 310.9 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 88.7 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 86.4 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 86.2 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 280.1 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 279.5 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 279.4 mmt.

2021/2022 WORLD CROP PRODUCTION

On Tuesday, the USDA pegged the 2021 Brazilian soybean production at 126.0 mmt, reflecting no change from USDA’s estimate last month of 126.0 mmt. and nearly matching the trade’s expectation of 125.9 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 116.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 116.5 mmt. and the USDA’s June estimate of 116.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 44.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s June estimate of 43.4 mmt. and the trade’s expectation of 43.3 mmt.

Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 53.0 mmt, reflecting no change from the USDA’s previous estimate of 53.0 mmt. and slightly above trade’s expectation of 52.5 mmt.

More from USDA

“This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks,” said USDA in the report. “Corn beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021/22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report” 

USDA says corn production for 2022-23 is forecast to be 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage report. 

Trade Reaction

"The soybean balance sheet is incredibly tight," says Jake Hanley of Teucrium Funds. "The U.S. is projected to use all the soybeans we grow this year meaning the USDA does not see a build in domestic bean inventories this year." 

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