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334690

USDA projects tighter corn and wheat supplies

Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2022-2023 U.S. ENDING STOCKS

For corn, USDA pegged the U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks at 1.172 billion bushels. This is above the trade estimate of 1.126 billion bushels and below USDA's September estimate of 1.219 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 200 million bushels, below the trade's expectation of 245 million bushels and reflecting no change from USDA’s September estimate. 

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 576 million bushels, below September’s estimate of 610 million, but above the trade’s expectation was 563 million.

2022-2023 U.S. YIELD PROJECTIONS

For corn, USDA is projecting 2022-2023 yield to be 171.9 bushels per acre. This is below the trade expectation of 172.1 bushels per acre. The September estimate was 172.5 bushels per acre.

USDA is expecting total corn production to be 13.895 billion bushels. The trade expectation was 13.904 billion bushels and the September estimate was 13.944 billion.

USDA pegged U.S. soybean yield at 49.8 bushels per acre. The trade expectation was 50.6 bushels per acre. The USDA’s September estimate was 50.5 bushels per acre.

U.S. soybean production was pegged at 4.313 billion bushels versus the trade expectation of 4.380 billion bushels and the September estimate of 4.378 billion.

USDA is projecting the 2022-2023 wheat yield to be 46.5 bushels per acre, down from the September estimate of 47.5.

The report projects 1.650 billion bushels of wheat production, down from the September estimate of 1.783 billion bushels. 

2022-2023 WORLD ENDING STOCKS

USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 301.2 million metric tons (mmt) vs. the trade’s expectation of 301.9 mmt and USDA’s September estimate of 304.5 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 100.5 mmt, above the trade’s expectation of 99.7 mmt, and USDA's estimate last month of 98.9 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 267.5 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 267.9 mmt and the September estimate of 268.6 mmt.

MORE FROM USDA

“This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks,” USDA says in the report. “Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels.”

TRADE REACTION

Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says the report underscores how tight supply is. 

“The report was friendly for soybeans with carryout numbers coming in smaller than expected,” says Blohm. “The USDA reduced yield, which helped to keep that ending stock number unchanged from last month. 

“The report was neutral for corn, coming in as expected for ending stocks, while the report had a neutral to bearish aspect for wheat with carryout numbers coming in slightly larger than expectations. 

“Ultimately, in the big picture, U.S. carryout for grains and oilseeds are still historically tight for another year, and this will keep the market prices supported for the remainder of the year.”

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