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3 Big Things Today, April 5

Soybean Futures Surge Overnight; Private Forecasters Keep Raising Brazil Bean Crop.

1. Soybeans Higher Overnight as Rain in Argentina May Delay Harvest

Soybeans jumped in overnight trading on forecasts for rainfall in Argentina just as the soybean harvest gets under way in earnest.

Widespread rains in much of the South American country will stall harvest progress next week, Commodity Weather Group said in a report. Rainfall in Brazil also will slow collection of soybeans, the forecaster said.

Excessive rainfall in April last year delayed the harvest in Argentina, reducing yields and production. While it is too early to say it’ll be a repeat of last year, collection of the country’s oilseeds is not off to a good start. That, in turn, gives investors hope that importers will again turn to the U.S. for supplies.

Soybean futures rose 9¢ to $9.46¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added $2.30 to $310.40 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.40¢ to 31.83¢ a pound.

Corn futures rose 1¼¢ to $3.64¼ a bushel in Chicago.

Wheat futures for May delivery rose 1½¢ to $4.28½ a bushel, while Kansas City wheat added $4.25½ a bushel.

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2. Brazil Soybean Crop Estimates Keep Getting Bigger Even as Traders Focus on Argentina

While traders on Jackson and LaSalle are getting worked up into a frenzy over the potential for a wet April and subsequent harvest delays in Argentina, it seems Brazil’s crop keeps getting bigger.

INTL FCStone on Tuesday raised its soybean production outlook in Brazil to 111.6 million metric tons, up from a prior forecast for 109.1 million tons. Analysts from the researcher said they expect all of the country’s primary grain-producing regions to have record or near-record crops.

Brazilian crop consultancy Celeres raised its estimate for soybean output to 114 million tons, up from a March outlook for 110 million tons.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture last month pegged Brazilian soybean output at 108 million metric tons, up from 104 million in February. With all of the private forecasters raising their production numbers, it would make sense if the USDA followed suit in its Supply/Demand Report on April 11.

Increased production in Brazil and lofty planting intentions in the U.S. are pressuring prices. Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday fell to the lowest intraday price in a year.

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3. Strong Storms to Cause Flooding in Missouri, Possible Tornadoes in Southeast

A strong storm is pounding parts of Missouri this morning, which likely will lead to flooding in several northern counties of the state.

As much as 2 inches of rain have already fallen on saturated ground, leading to flooding or forecasts for flood along waterways in the northern third of the state, according to the National Weather Service. Strong winds are also expected with gusts up to 45 mph.

The storm will continue to move east and south, pushing potentially hazardous weather into the Southeast, the NWS said.

“A vigorous storm system is likely to bring an increased threat for severe thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Southeast U.S. Wednesday into Wednesday night,” the agency said in a report this morning. “Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding of low-lying areas.”

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