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3 Big Things Today, August 10

Soybeans Rise as Demand Persists; Weather Forecaster Predicts Record Bean Yield.

1. Soybean Futures Rise Overnight as Daily Sales Streak Extended

Soybean futures rose overnight as demand for U.S. supplies persists amid low prices and a weaker dollar.

Exporters sold another 120,000 metric tons of beans to overseas buyers for delivery in the 2016-2017 marketing year, the Department of Agriculture said in a report yesterday. U.S. shippers have sold north of about 3 million metric tons of beans in the past 10 days, according to USDA data.

Prices are still below the $10 benchmark, as they have lately risen overnight but dropped off during the trading session. Combine that with a weaker dollar that’s fallen in each of the past two days, and U.S. inventories become attractive to importers.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 3¾¢ to $9.91¾ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures for December delivery lost a dime to $333.20 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.40¢ to 32.05¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery were unchanged at $3.32½ a bushel overnight.

Wheat futures for September delivery were unchanged at $4.17 a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City wheat lost ½¢ to $4.09½ a bushel.


2. U.S. Growers to Harvest Record Bean Crop, Weather Forecaster Predicts

Soybean growers in the U.S. will harvest a record 49 bushels an acre this year, according to a forecast from Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

“(A) favorable summer moisture profile in most areas and above-average crop ratings at (the) national level support high yield,” the weather forecaster said in a special report on Tuesday. “(The) 16- to 30-day guidance is also supportive of late August/early September rains to aid late filling period.”

CWG’s analysis, however, notes that dry weather in the past couple weeks in some areas of the Midwest have led to a drawdown in topsoil moisture, but rains expected in the next seven days will make up for the deficit.

The forecaster also said its projection assumes needed rains will reach central Illinois, central Indiana, central Ohio, and much of Iowa and Minnesota in the next seven days, as expected, otherwise yield could come in lower. The Great Lakes and Deep South have seen prolonged dry spells this year, and the largest problem spots are expected to be in Ohio, Michigan, Texas, Alabama, New York, and Pennsylvania this year.

Still, similar weather patterns throughout the years have led to larger-than-normal yields.

“Years with the most similar crop ratings ranged from 5% to 17% above trend, including a +9% (above trend) in the most similar 1992 case,” CWG said.

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3. Rain Forecast to Fall in Midwest This Week as Heat Persists

Some rainfall is forecast for parts of Iowa this afternoon and into Thursday, though the weather isn’t expected to be severe, the National Weather Service said in a report on Wednesday.

The storms will roll into central Illinois and then into Indiana in the coming days, with parts of Illinois seeing rain Thursday night and into the weekend, the NWS said.

As it has been for most of the summer, extreme heat will be an issue. The same parts of Iowa and Illinois expecting rain this week also will likely see heat indexes from 100˚F. to 105˚F. tomorrow. A wide chunk of land stretching from northern Kansas and Missouri all the way to the Texas-Mexico border is under a heat advisory, as indexes are expected to top 110˚F.

Those who will be outdoors are advised to postpone work or, if that’s not possible, ensure they stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to remain cool and avoid heat-related injuries.  

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