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3 Big Things Today, August 10

USDA August Supply/Demand Report to be released at 11 a.m. CT.

1. The Wheat market is giving back half its gains from Wednesday, while soybeans edge higher Thursday.

In the overnight markets, the December corn futures contract traded unchanged at $3.86¼ per bushel. The November soybean futures are 5¼¢ higher at $9.78. The September wheat futures pared their losses to trading only 1¢ lower at $4.58.

Cory Bratland, Al Kluis Commodities broker, says all eyes will be focused on the USDA Crop Production report out at 11:00 a.m. today.

“There's not much new news to trade on lately. The weather is up in the air as far as moisture coming into the western Corn Belt over the next six to 10 days,” Bratland stated to customers in a daily note.

Analysts see the USDA lowering its estimate for U.S. corn production to 166 bushels per acre, compared with the 170.7 bushels per acre in its July estimate.

The recent dry weather is seen as lowering production.

Analysts expect the USDA to leave the U.S. soybean yield little changed at 47.5 bpa, compared with the USDA’s previous estimate of 48.0 bpa.

2. The USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report at 7:30 a.m.

Here are the expectations from the trade:

• Wheat = 200,000 to 400,000 metric tons

• Corn 400,000 to 800,000 metric tons 

• Soybeans = 350,000 to 950,000 metric tons

• Soybean meal = 50,000 to 200,000 metric tons            

On Thursday, USDA said private exporters cancelled a sale of 130,000 metric tons of U.S. old-crop soybeans to unknown destinations.

Meanwhle,  the U.S. weekly ethanol production is on the rise. In its weekly report Wednesday, the Energy Information Agency stated production averaged 1.012 million barrels per day (b/d), or 42.50 million gallons daily.

That is up 10,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production edged higher to 1.013 million b/d for an annualized rate of 15.53 billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Association.

Stocks of ethanol were 21.3 million barrels. That is a 1.9% increase from last week. There were zero imports recorded for the week. 

3. Unfavorable weather seen for the Corn Belt for rest of month.

New weather models indicate dry weather for the rest of August for key states of the Corn Belt.

This could compound the problems for an already struggling U.S. corn crop. While July is seen as the critical month for corn pollination, August weather can help put grain weight on the kernels that did develop.

Some areas of the Corn Belt have been in a drought or severe drought state for long lengths this summer.

As of Sunday, 60% of the U.S. corn crop had been rated good/excellent, below the 61% rating a week ago, and sharply below the 74% rating a year ago, according to the USDA Crop Progress Report Monday.

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