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3 Big Things Today, August 12
1. Beans, Corn Modestly Higher Overnight on Strong Export Demand
Soybeans were slightly higher overnight amid strong demand for U.S. supplies, though investors are mostly sitting on the sidelines ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report.
Exporters sold 308,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery in the current marketing year that ends in about two weeks, but recorded 2.79 million tons of sales for the 2016-2017 marketing year, with China buying 1.84 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Unknown buyers were second on the list, taking 743,000 tons.
Corn sales also were strong, as exporters sold 594,900 tons for delivery by the end of this month and 1.02 million tons for 2016-2017. The biggest buyer was Mexico, taking 254,900, followed by Japan, which purchased 198,1000 tons, the USDA said.
Still, traders are taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the WASDE Report due out at noon in Washington.
Soybean futures for November delivery rose a penny to $9.85 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures for December delivery fell 60¢ to $329.30 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.17¢ to 32.38¢ a pound.
Corn futures for December delivery gained ¼¢ to $3.32 a bushel in Chicago.
Wheat futures for September delivery ¼¢ to $4.16 a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City wheat added ¾¢ to $4.13 a bushel.
2. All Eyes on WASDE as USDA Likely to Raise Production Estimates
All eyes are on Washington today as the USDA is set to release its monthly WASDE Report at noon, and traders are expecting the government to raise its outlook for production of both corn and beans.
Corn output is forecast at 14.784 billion bushels, up from last month’s projection of 14.54 billion bushels and last year’s 13.601 billion, according to estimates compiled by Reuters. Yield is pegged at 170.8 bushels an acre, topping last month’s projection of 168 bushels.
Carryout is estimated at 1.72 billion bushels, higher than the July outlook for 1.701 billion. In 2016-2017, stockpiles will totally 2.287 billion bushels, the analysts said, up from USDA’s July forecast for 2.081 billion bushels.
Soybean production is pegged at 3.949 billion bushels, well above the 3.88 billion predicted by the USDA in July and slightly higher than last year’s 3.929 billion, analyst said. Yield is forecast to come in at 47.6 bushels an acre, beating last month’s outlook for 46.7 bushels but short of 2015’s 48 bushels an acre.
Carryout in the current marketing year that ends August 31 is forecast at 328 million bushels, below last month’s outlook for 350 million, primarily due to increased sales the past couple of weeks.
For 2016-2017, stockpiles are pegged at 323 million bushels, above the July USDA estimate for 290 million, according to the analysts.
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3. Severe Thunderstorms Roll Into Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin
Severe weather is hitting parts of the Midwest that could cause flooding in several areas.
As much as 5 inches of rain fell in parts of Iowa and Illinois overnight, and another inch or 2 is expected to fall this morning as thunderstorms continue, the National Weather Service said. That could lead to flooding in some areas.
Flash flood watches have been issued for several counties in eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.
Central Missouri and southern Illinois also will be hit by heavy rainfall that’s expected to continue through the weekend that could cause flooding, the NWS said.
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