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3 Big Things Today, June 7

Wheat Rises in Overnight Trading; Allendale Sees Declines in Corn, Bean Carryout.

1. Wheat Futures Improve Overnight on Continued Dry Weather in North Dakota

Wheat futures were again higher overnight on expectations for dry weather in the U.S. Northern Plains, while corn and soybeans gained on expected harvest delays in parts of Brazil.

Little or no rain is expected to fall in parts of North Dakota, the biggest producer of spring wheat in the U.S., until at least Saturday, according to Accuweather. Until then, it’s expected to be warm with temperatures reaching the mid-80s.

The state has received little or no rain for the past two weeks, pushing down the quality of the crop. Spring wheat conditions fell 7 points to 55% good or excellent as of Sunday due to the dry weather, according to the Department of Agriculture.

In Brazil, the southern quarter of the country’s corn belt likely will see harvest delays due to more rainfall later this week, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Wheat futures for July delivery rose 4¼¢ to $4.40 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City wheat added 5¢ to $4.43 a bushel in Chicago.

Corn futures for July delivery rose 2½¢ to $3.79¾ a bushel overnight.

Soybeans gained 4½¢ to $9.28 a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal added $2.60 to $303.70 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.07¢ to 31.32¢ a pound.

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2. Allendale Says It Expects USDA To Lower Old-Crop Corn, Soybean Carryout Estimates

With the Department of Agriculture’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report out in two days, private forecasters are starting to put in their bets.

Allendale said it sees old-crop corn stockpiles to be pushed lower to 2.275 billion bushels from a prior outlook for 2.295 billion. The decline likely will come from increased use of corn for ethanol, the researcher said.

No changes are expected in new-crop production or for any demand numbers in the report, but with a lower carry-in number, it’s likely the inventories forecast for 2017-2018 will decline to 2.090 billion bushels from last month’s forecast for 2.110 billion, Allendale said.

The estimate for 2016-2017 soybean carryout will fall to 430 million bushels from last month’s 435 million, the company said. Export sales likely will be increased.

While no production changes are expected for the 2017-2018 outlook, it’s possible that the stockpiles estimate will rise to 500 million bushels, up from May’s 480 million bushels, due to lower export sales, Allendale said.

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3. Thunderstorms Possible in Southern Plains Today, Most of Midwest Remains Dry

Thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Southern Plains today and tomorrow, which may delay the winter wheat harvest.

The storms may turn severe with hail and damaging wind the primary culprits, according to the National Weather Service. Heavy rain is expected, and stronger storms could result in localized flash flooding, the agency said in a report early Wednesday.

The chance of storms will continue through tomorrow with more severe storms possible.

In the Midwest, isolated showers are possible today and tonight in parts of northeast Nebraska, the NWS said. The rest of the Midwest from Iowa through Indiana looks mostly dry today with few chances of rain in the next few days, according to the weather service.

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