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3 Big Things Today, March 22

Wheat Futures Lower Overnight; Eastern Plains, Southern Midwest Likely Wetter This Summer.

1. Wheat Falls on Large Global Output, Chance of Southern Plains Rain

Wheat futures declined overnight as investors focus on large global supplies and the possibility of rain in the Southern Plains this week.

World wheat production is pegged at 751.1 million metric tons, up from 735.3 million last year, and stockpiles are forecast at a shade under 250 million tons, easily topping the prior year’s 240.3 million, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Showers are expected in northern Texas near the Oklahoma border late Thursday into Friday, according to Commodity Weather Group. Still, a fourth of the hard red winter wheat crop in the Southern Plains will miss the rain. Little or no precipitation has fallen in the area in at least a month, National Weather Service maps show.

Wheat futures for May delivery fell 2½¢ to $4.24 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City wheat lost 2¾¢ to $4.35½ a bushel.

Soybean futures declined 1¾¢ to $9.99¾ a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal lost $1 to $324.80 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.02¢ to 33.16¢ a pound.

Corn futures declined a tick to $3.61 a bushel on the CBOT.

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2. CWG Forecast Shows Risks in Fourth of Corn Belt; Wetter Eastern, Southern Midwest

The eastern Plains, southern Midwest, and Delta regions of the U.S. will be wetter than previously expected this summer, Commodity Weather Group said in a monthly seasonal outlook.

A weak or moderate El Niño weather matter will occur this summer, which will moderate the cool northeastern Pacific and bring broad warmth to the rest of the ocean, including a key region near the Baja Peninsula, CWG said in its report.

That will put about a fourth of the Midwest Corn and Soybean Belts at risk for below-average summer rain, but it may not be as hot in the region, which will help crops, the forecaster said. The southeast is most at risk for notable yield threats, CWG said.

The best chance for frequent rains are in the Northern Plains, while a wet start to the summer is already threatening the soft wheat harvest.

The northern third of Canada wheat and canola country is at risk for rain deficits, as are parts of the southern U.S. should the storm stream dip south, CWG said.

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3. Storm Forecast to Bring Rain to Southern Plains, Possible Tornadoes in southern Midwest

A storm is brewing in the Rockies that is expected to bring much-needed rain to the Southern Plains later this week, the National Weather Service said in a report on Wednesday.

“Severe weather will be possible on Thursday and Thursday night across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles,” the NWS said. “A couple of things like timing and coverage could change between now and Thursday, but it does appear that thunderstorms could develop late afternoon and early evening and sweep across the panhandles rather quickly.”

The weather system that’s forming likely will bring rain, but also hail, to much of the High Plains on Thursday and Friday. By the end of the week, the area near the Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas borders will likely see rain, strong winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes, the agency said.

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