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3 Big Things Today, May 10

Wheat Futures Higher Overnight; USDA Expected to Raise Corn Stocks, Lower Beans

1. Wheat Futures Modestly Higher as Results From Snow Damage Awaited

Wheat futures were modestly higher in overnight trading on further concerns about the hard-red winter wheat crop.

Growers, agronomists, and investors alike are all waiting to see how much damage a severe snowstorm during the weekend of April 29-30 inflicted upon the hard-red winter crop in the southern Plains.

Damage from such an event usually takes a couple weeks to determine, so results should be coming soon. Participants on the Kansas Wheat Tour said yields and thus production likely would be hurt by the storm, though they weren’t sure by exactly how much.

Corn and soybeans were little changed in overnight trading.

Wheat futures for July delivery rose 2¼¢ to $4.31¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City futures added 2¾¢ to $4.41½ a bushel in Chicago.

Corn futures rose ¾¢ to $3.67¼ a bushel.

Soybean futures for July delivery were unchanged at $9.74 a bushel overnight. Soy meal was unchanged at $318.50 a short ton and soy oil futures fell 0.14¢ to 32.75¢ a pound.

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2. USDA Report Likely to Show Slightly Higher Corn Stockpiles, Lower Bean Inventories

U.S. stockpiles of corn are expected to be forecast slightly higher while the soybean inventories outlook likely will be lower in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Corn inventories at the end of the marketing year on August 31 will likely be forecast by the Department of Agriculture at 2.33 billion bushels, up from the month-earlier estimate of 2.32 billion, according to analysts. Still, that’s well below the 2.73 billion recorded a year earlier.

For the 2017-2018 marketing year that includes the current crop not yet fully in the ground, U.S. inventories are pegged at 2.14 billion bushels, according to trade projections.

Globally, stockpiles in 2016-2017 likely will total 223.7 million metric tons, little changed from the April projections but up from last year’s 211.8 million. Inventories probably will be projected to fall to 209 million tons from last year’s 223 million tons.

For soybeans, 2016-2017 ending stocks likely will be pegged at 441 million bushels, down from April’s forecast for 445 million, according to analysts. Still, the total is more than double last year’s 197 million tons. For 2017-2018, carryout will probably be seen at 566 million tons.

Globally, soybean stockpiles likely will be forecast at 88 million tons – little change from last month but well above last year’s 77 million tons.

World soybean inventories in 2017-2018 aren’t expected to change much as they’re pegged at 87 million metric tons, according to trade estimates.

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3. More Storms Expected in Northern Illinois, Indiana, as Flooding Continues

A long line of flooding is seen on weather maps stretching throughout much of Illinois and Indiana all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico along the Mississippi River.

Incessant rains the past few weeks have left many rivers over their banks, and it looks like Mother Nature isn’t done yet.

The National Weather Service said in an early report this morning that there’s a “significant” risk of thunderstorms and wind damage and elevated to limited risks of half-dollar-size hail, flooding, and tornadoes on Wednesday in parts of northern Illinois and Indiana.

“Isolated thunderstorms are possible through the early afternoon, which are unlikely to be severe,” the NWS said. “As the afternoon progresses, a gradual increase in scattered storms will occur. Organized storms are expected to develop by late day or early evening and track eastward through the evening hours. This is the window most favored for scattered severe storms.”

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