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3 Big Things Today, October 12

Corn, Beans Little Changed Overnight; USDA Expected to Lower Corn, Raise Soybean Yield Forecasts

1. Corn, Beans Little Changed Ahead of WASDE Report

Corn and soybean futures were little changed in overnight trading ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Investors were sitting on the sidelines ahead of the report. Corn yields are expected to be adjusted lower while soybeans are forecast to be raised, though anything can happen, which is why traders are taking a wait-and-see approach.

Prices have been pressured as the harvest rolls on. About 35% of U.S. corn had been collected as of Sunday and 44% of soybeans have been harvested, according to the USDA. Both are behind their respective five-year averages.

Underpinning futures, however, have been reports of less-than-stellar yields after excessive rainfall in much of August and September flooded some fields and caused fungal diseases in others. Strong demand for U.S. supplies also has given prices a boost.

Corn futures for December delivery rose 1¢ to $3.46½ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.   

Soybeans for November delivery added a penny to $9.55¼ a bushel. Soy meal futures for December delivery rose 30¢ to $300.60 a short ton and soy oil gained 0.32¢ to 33.67¢ a pound.

Wheat futures for December delivery fell 1¾ cents to $4.05½ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures lost 2¢ to $4.04¼ a bushel.  


2. USDA Expected to Lower Corn, Raise Soybean Yield Projections

The Department of Agriculture is expected to lower its outlook for corn yields while raising its forecast for soybeans in today’s WASDE report, according to surveys.

Corn yield is expected to be pegged from 173.4 to 173.5 bushels an acre, analysts said in various media reports ahead of the October report. That’s down from last month’s forecast for 174.4 bushels an acre. Production is seen at 15 billion bushels, down from 15.1 billion bushels, but well above last year’s 13.6 billion bushels.

Corn carryout is pegged at 2.36 billion bushels, slightly below the September outlook for 2.38 billion bushels but higher than last year’s 1.74 billion bushels.

Soybean yield is projected from 51.4 to 51.5 bushels an acre, according to various reports. That’s up from last month’s outlook for 50.6 bushels an acre. Production is pegged at 4.28 billion bushels, up from the September forecast for 4.2 billion bushels and last year’s 3.93 billion.

Stockpiles are projected at 415 million bushels, well above last month’s 365 million-bushel forecast and more than double the prior year.

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3. Freeze Warning Issued For Much of Central U.S.  

A freeze warning will be in effect starting late tonight, running through tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. local time for the eastern half of Nebraska, the southeastern quadrant of South Dakota, all of Iowa, southern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures are expected to drop as low as 26°F. in much of the area affected by the freeze warnings, the NWS said in a report on Wednesday. The temperatures will stay below freezing for several hours, which could hurt “sensitive vegetation,” though the agency didn’t specify which types of plants could be hurt.

Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Matthew continue to wreak havoc on the Carolinas where “major river flooding” has led to record-high waters in some counties, according to the NWS.

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