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3 Big Things Today, September 12

Soybean Futures Fall Ahead of USDA Report; Lower Corn, Higher Bean Yields Forecast.

1. Soybeans Fall as USDA Report Expected to Show Higher Production

Soybean futures fell overnight ahead of the Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Economics (WASDE) report due out at noon in Washington.

Analysts expect the USDA to raise its yield and production forecasts for soybeans while lowering its output projection for corn. Both corn and soybean output are still seen at records, however, which is capping prices for agriculture commodities across the board.

Soybeans for November delivery dropped 5¾¢ to $9.74½ a bushel, soy meal futures for December delivery fell $1.30 to $315.20 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.39¢ to 32.98¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery fell ¾¢ to $3.40¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat futures for December delivery declined 1¢ to $4.02½ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures lost 2¼¢ to $4.16¼ a bushel.

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2. WASDE Estimates Show Decreased Corn Yield, Higher Soybean Yield

U.S. growers will produce less corn and more soybeans than previously thought by the Department of Agriculture, analysts forecast ahead of today’s WASDE report.

Corn output in the 2016-2017 marketing year that started on September 1 will total 15 billion bushels on yields of 173.4 bushels an acre, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters. That’s down from government estimates from August for 15.2 billion bushels and yields of 175.1 bushel an acre.

Soybean production is pegged by analysts at 4.09 billion bushels on yields of 49.2 bushels an acre, up from last month’s USDA outlook for output of 4.06 billion bushels and yields of 48.9 bushels an acre.

The forecasts projected by analysts are more in line with the Pro Farmer crop tour, which took place last month. Participants estimated the corn harvest at 14.7 billion bushels on yields of 170.2 bushels an acre, and soybean output at 4.09 billion bushels on yields of 49.3 bushels an acre.

Ending stocks in the 2015-2016 marketing year that just ended for corn are pegged at 1.71 billion bushels, with 2016-2017 carryout at 2.33 billion, analysts said. For beans, inventories on August 31 are projected at 232 million bushels and new-crop carryout at 330 million bushels.

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3. Thunderstorms Continue in Parts of Illinois, Kansas as Flooding Persists

Not much has changed on the weather maps, though they look less threatening since flooding has subsided in some areas, as rainfall is expected to continue for much of the Midwest.

In parts of northwestern Illinois and eastern Iowa, thunderstorms are possible late tonight but will not reach severe levels, the National Weather Service said in a report early Monday. Still, storms are forecast to continue through the rest of the week.

Storms also will continue in western Kansas with some producing more precipitation that’s unneeded in some areas.

“Thunderstorms – a few that may be quite strong with heavy rains – will return to most of central and south-central Kansas early this evening and continue overnight,” the NWS said. “Flooding will continue in a few rivers through midweek.”

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