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3 Big Things Today, September 30

Soybeans, Corn Little Changed Overnight; Analysts Expect Lower Year-Over-Year Stockpiles.

1. Soybean, Corn Modestly Lower Overnight on Harvest Pressure

Soybean and corn futures were modestly lower overnight as dry weather puts harvest pressure on prices.

The corn harvest, which was about 15% finished as of Sunday, should be making good progress as dry weather in the Midwest allows farmers into fields. Soybean collection as of earlier this week was 10% complete, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Private analysts and the USDA alike have forecast record yields and production for both crops, but the weather has been excessively wet in recent months. As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in parts of the Midwest in the past 60 days, flooding fields and leading to fungal diseases that could curb output.

Farmers surveyed by have said crops are, in general, good but not great. Moisture levels for corn have ranged from about 15% to 25%, according to growers.

Soybeans for November delivery fell 1¢ to $9.49¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures for December delivery lost $1.70 to $297 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.18¢ to 33.52¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery lost a penny to $3.28¼ a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery declined 1¼¢ to $3.97¾ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures fell 1¢ to $4.16¼ a bushel.


2. Domestic Stockpiles on September 1 Likely Rose Year Over Year

The Department of Agriculture will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report at noon in Washington today, and analysts estimate inventories of both corn and beans at the beginning of September were higher than the same time a year earlier.

Corn inventories on September 1 are pegged from 1.754 billion to 1.757 billion bushels, according to analysts. That’s up from 1.731 billion bushels on Sepember 1, 2015, according to the USDA.

Soybean stockpiles at the start of the month were estimated from 201 million to 202 million bushels, up from 191 million a year ago, according to projections.

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3. Dry Weather Through Weekend to Aid U.S. Harvest   

Dry weather is expected in much of the Midwest through the weekend, which will help farmers accelerate the harvest.

Some rainfall is expected in the extreme eastern Midwest and Ohio River Valley.

Parts of Iowa are still flooded as the Mississippi River at Rock Island was at 15.4 feet and steady, above the 15-foot flood stage, according to the National Weather Service. The river at Dubuque was 15.9 feet and rising, nearing the flood stage of 16 feet, the NWS said in a report on Friday.

The Cedar River and Wapsipinicon River are both reportedly over their banks in Iowa.

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Will you have enough on-farm storage for harvest?

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