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'A real mess' in northern Corn Belt

Weather Market Commentary

Friday, September 24, 2010

It is a real mess in southern Minnesota right now, with heavy rains through yesterday morning (just over nine inches at Amboy was the highest "official" total that was recorded) followed by additional 0.50-2.00+" amounts since yesterday morning. All of southern Minnesota (as well as neighboring sections of South Dakota and Wisconsin) remains under flood warnings here early on this Friday (as does parts of Missouri, another wet part of the Corn Belt that saw unwelcome rains yesterday).

The western Corn Belt will be dry for this Friday, but additional rains (light in nature) will be seen for late tonight through very early on Sunday. It is all downhill after that though, with any rain for the rest of next week very light (most places getting nothing all) with sunshine being abundant on most days as well. There are very good signs that this drier pattern can last right through the end of the two- week forecast. It is bad right now in important parts of the western Corn Belt, but at least those areas are given the best possible forecast to recover from that situation.

All of the big rains over the next ten days are going to shift to southeastern parts of the Nation, an area that has certainly been disfavored for rain in recent weeks (or even months). Considerable rain will start to fall there by late in the weekend and continue through Monday as an upper level low pressure system strengthens in the vicinity of that area.

Beyond that, weather models remain in agreement that southeastern parts of the Nation will be under the influence of tropical weather conditions for the beginning days of October, whether it be from newly-formed Tropical Storm Matthew (which in the near-term is headed towards central America) or another storm that might form. Between the rains of early next week and rains late in the 10-day period, there may be parts of the Southeast that go from drought conditions now to flooding problems in the early days of October.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2010 - All Rights Reserved

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