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Cooler Temperatures in 15-Day Forecast

Weather models struggle to forecast how cool temperatures will get in the Midwest over the next 11 to 15 days, but cooler temperatures are trending, nonetheless. Predictions for the next 31 to 60 days trend slightly warmer as we move into harvest season, and the central and western Midwest could also see slightly wetter conditions. See details below.

11- to 15-day outlook
The 11- to 15-day forecast is full of uncertainty as European and GFS models show different temperatures across the Midwest, according to MDA Weather Services.

The European model leans toward slightly above-normal temperatures, while the GFS model favors a much cooler pattern.

“Our forecast leans toward the cooler solution, as the European has struggled to pick up on some of the recent cool shots across the Midwest,” says Kyle Tapley, senior agriculture meteorologist for MDA Weather Services.

Tropical cyclones in the central and western Pacific will likely cause model frustration and some unpredictability in the coming days, says Tapley.

31- to 60-day outlook

The latest forecast for the next 31 to 60 days expects slightly warmer temperatures for the Midwest, reducing the risk of frost or freeze risks as harvest season commences.

The precipitation outlook is slightly wetter for the central and western Midwest for September and October.

“Showers in the Midwest would result in only minor harvest delays for corn and soybeans,” says Don Keeney, senior agriculture meteorologist for MDA Weather Services.

Most of the Midwest continues to remain drought-free. Check here for the latest U.S. Drought Monitor update.

Summer recap

The meteorological summer came to a close on Monday, August 31. According to MDA Weather Services, June through August were near seasonal levels across most of the Corn Belt, but were above normal for the rest of the U.S.

Heavy rainfall during June and early July caused above-normal precipitation for the southern Midwest, according to MDA Weather Services. However, areas that received the most rainfall during June and July received the least amount of rainfall in August this year.

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