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No Christmas miracle as dry pattern continues in Southern Brazil.

Dry and hot weather in Argentina will increase drought stress.

If farmers in southern Brazil and northern Argentina asked Santa Claus for rain this year, they must have been on the naughty list. Drier than normal conditions are expected to continue across southern Brazil in the week-ending Christmas Day. Meanwhile, an abundance of rainfall will fall farther north across Central, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil. 

The week, ending December 18, 2021, brought decent rains to Brazil, except in the areas that needed it. According to data from WeatherTrends360, this was the first and second wettest mid-December in more than 30 years across Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Farther south, this was the seventh and ninth driest mid-December in Santa Catarina and Paraná. There was some favorable rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, especially the far southwestern section of the state, but overall this was the eighth driest mid-December in more than 30 years for the state. 

A map of weather for Brazil for December 19 to December 25
Photo credit: Weather Trends 360

Looking ahead, the week-ending on Christmas Day will bring much of the same weather pattern to Brazil as the past several weeks with drier than normal weather in the South and wetter than normal weather farther north. Cooler than normal plentiful rainfall across the Central, Southeast, and Northeast portions of Brazil, including in Mato Grosso where this will be the second coolest and first wettest third full week of December in more than 30 years. Once again, areas farther south will be drier. WeatherTrends360 expects this to be the second to sixth driest in more than 30 years for Paraná and the state of São Paulo. 

In Argentina, hot and dry weather will dry out soils quickly, exacerbating drought conditions for northern parts of the country. This is forecast to be the second to third warmest third full week of December in more than 30 years for the provinces of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos, and Córdoba and precipitation will trend drier than normal.

Corn and soybean production outlooks are in danger of being lowered, especially if rains do not develop come early January 2022. Prospects for rain are poor with drier trends favored in already dry areas, especially as La Niña continues.



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