End of June Corn Belt rains better arrive, forecaster says
The Corn Belt’s summer weather is becoming predictable. The question now is whether the trend continues or is disrupted.
The next 7 days
David Tolleris, WxRisk.com, says the next seven days in the Midwest will be hot, followed by moisture to end the month of June.
“The rest of the next seven days look pretty dry. None of the weather models show any significant rains,” Tolleris says. Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, most of Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri are all looking dry next week.”
On the other hand, southern Indiana, Ohio, eastern Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, all get rain next week.
“The areas that have plenty of rain already, and have saturated soils, get more rain next week,” he says.
The summer weather pattern has revealed itself, Tolleris says.
“If you are in the western Corn Belt and Upper Plains, you have moisture problems. If you are in the lower eastern Corn Belt, Southeast, and Delta, you have gotten rain,” Tolleris says.
That’s the way it’s been since the beginning of May, and that’s the way it looks going forward, he says.
End of June
A big trough is expected to build from Quebec, Canada, southward to Georgia. That means a strong high pressure next week, shutting off moisture supply while pushing the heat back toward the Rockies.
“But for most of next week, everybody from Interstate-35 east will see very pleasant temperatures, no heat, low humidity, and dry conditions,” Tolleris says.
After June 21, 2021, the Midwest weather pattern turns wetter.
“The weather models show 1 to 2 inches of rain for the areas of the Midwest. That rain is important because after that it turns dry again,” he says. “Plus, there are indications that the heat will return for the first week of July.”
He added, “That rain after July 21 is a big deal. If that rain underperforms, it’s going to make things pretty tough going into July.”
Tolleris says, “The first half of July looks pretty dry. Especially for the Midwestern places where it’s been dry. In the places where it’s been wet, July looks fairly wet. Again, that appears to be the summer pattern.”
There’s an interesting weather story building between the two U.S. Interstates of I-80 and I-70.
North of Interstate-80, between Nebraska and Detroit, Michigan, soil conditions are dry.
South of Interstate-70, most of those areas are wet.
In between the two east-west running interstates, there’s 60% to 70% normal dryness.
“There’s a battle zone going on between those two interstates. This will determine the overall U.S. crop yields this year. If the dryness drops down below I-80, we’re going to have real problems in July and August,” Tolleris says.
The next several weeks will be very telling in terms of whether the summer weather pattern continues or not.