FSA Updated Acreage to Be Ignored, Analyst Says
On Wednesday, the Farm Service Agency released updated U.S. 2015 planted acreage estimates.
For corn, U.S. farmers planted 84.810 million acres. For soybeans, the FSA pegged planted acreage at 81.07 million. The U.S. 2015 wheat acreage is pegged at 52.5 million.
Helen Pound, vice president, Commodity Specialist, Wedbush Securities Inc., Futures Division, says the FSA numbers will be largely forgotten.
“I think it is difficult for most analysts to fit the FSA numbers into a decision-making framework,” Pound says.
The FSA updates previously collected data each month, with “final” reports from farmers not required until January 30, 2016.
“By the time 'final' numbers are reported, futures markets are likely to be focused on the pace of demand for U.S. crops and production prospects in South America,” Pound says.
Pound added, “The impact of El Niño is expected to increase its influence on world grain production during the Nov-Dec-Jan period, and this may impact the world supply-demand balance and grain futures price action more that the 'final' FAS acreage numbers.”
Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the market will have little or no reaction. “USDA used these numbers in the October 9 reports. So, any effect should already be in the crop estimates."
Other market analysts are quick to point out that there are several million acres in the U.S. that have never been in the Farm Program. Thus, NASS numbers are always higher than FSA.