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Heat, moisture prospects looking ahead

As we already knew, crop progress is behind the five-year averages because of the delayed planting due to the wet spring in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin report that the corn pollinating phase is just beginning as of last weekend, with about 20% of the corn silking in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Missouri reports 30% silking vs. the 60% five-year average. About 15% to 30% of the soybeans were blooming across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri.

The corn crop is particularly sensitive to heat during this growth phase. For the rest of this week, daytime temperatures will be in the range of the upper 80s to low 90s. A cold front approaching from the north will bring relief with increased chances of rain on Friday across the northern Corn Belt and on Saturday and Sunday to the southern Corn Belt states.

The chances of rain along the leading edge of the cold front look to be in the range of 0.25" to 1.00" rains with 30% coverage in the western Corn Belt and 30% to 50% coverage over the north-central and eastern Corn Belt states. Cooler temperatures in the 80s are forecast over this next weekend after the passage of this cold front across the Corn Belt.

Early next week an approaching secondary cold front could bring heat back to the western Corn Belt states followed by more showers and thundershowers thru the north-central and eastern Corn Belt states. This front could become nearly stationary across the northern Corn Belt. Here the weather models are digressing from earlier forecasts.

The European model is keeping more heat in the western Corn Belt than earlier forecasts and indicating less rain. The American model is slower to bring the heat back into the western Corn Belt next week giving the Corn Belt more chances of rainfall. This stationary frontal position could be key to amounts and coverage of rain across the Corn Belt late next week. Both models begin to bring more heat into the Corn Belt toward the end of the month of July.

For the 6-10 period from July 21-26, we are forecasting above-normal temperatures with normal precipitation the eastern Corn Belt with pockets of dry weather remaining in the western and southwestern Corn Belt.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2010 - All Rights Reserved

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