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Outlook: Harvest Weather Seen Favorable, Spotty

At least one thing is clear: The Midwest frost threat is no longer a worry (through early October), according to Freese-Notis Weather Inc.

What doesn’t seem to be crystal clear is the favorability for widespread warm and dry harvest weather. 


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Near-term, the weekend weather looks slightly wet for the majority of the Corn Belt. However, longer term, the western Corn Belt could trend the wettest.

“Weekend rainfall will be rather spotty in coverage as a cold front slides southward through the Corn Belt. Most areas across the central and southern Midwest will receive 0.1 to 0.5 inch with some localized 1-inch amounts. Slightly heavier rainfall is forecast across the Great Lakes Region where 0.5 to 1.0 inch is expected,” says Josh Senechal, meteorologist, Freese-Notis Weather.

End-of-month outlook

“For next week, the jet stream will head northward. Other than some showers next Tuesday-Wednesday across the western Corn Belt, a sprawling area of high pressure will center itself across the Ohio Valley Region, lending an extended period of predominantly dry weather,” Senechal says.

The remainder of next week (Thursday-Sunday), looks predominantly dry along with above-normal temperatures working into the central and western Corn Belt. Harvest and drydown weather looks favorable for most of the Midwest, although delays are possible across the northwest, he says.

“For the 11- to 15-day time frame, the latest suite of model guidance favors above-normal rainfall across the western and northern Midwest with near-normal rainfall across the east. This may prolong harvest delays across the west, although the presence of near- to above-normal temperatures will be a mitigating factor,” Senechal says.

Beyond, near- to above-normal temperatures may persist, with a low frost threat into the start of October. "Most areas will see favorable harvest weather with the western Midwest the most likely to suffer from occasional delays," Senechal says.

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