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S.A. rainfall extremes leveling off

Too much rain has been a big problem so far during this planting season in South America for much of Argentina and far southern Brazil, but we have started to improve that situation in recent days and more improvement will be seen in most of that area into at least the early part of next week.

Just a few stations that I track in the main corn/wheat/soybean areas of Argentina had below normal rainfall in October (all of them in far southern Buenos Aires), and it is very easy to find places that had more than double their normal totals (one spot in Entire Rios finished at about 450% of normal for the month). One location in Cordoba, two locations in Santa Fe, two in Entre Rios, and three in Buenos Aires recorded over ten inches of rain for October. 

This rain has not been good for maturing winter wheat in the region (U.S. attache to Argentina yesterday lowered his wheat production forecast for that country due to the wet conditions) and has slowed corn planting and early corn development (most soybean planting does not begin until this month). In Brazil, I can find three spots in and near the major corn/wheat/soybean growing areas of Rio Grande do Sul that recorded over ten inches of rain in October (one spot at over 16 inches), with is around double the normal amount.

The past three days have been mostly dry though in Argentina, and that started a time frame in which significant/widespread rains are not forecast until about late next Wednesday (a number of spots in the northern growing region will end up with about 8 straight days with no rain, while southern areas may see sporadic very light rains for tonight into Tuesday). Rio Grande do Sul had dry weather the past 24 hours, is expected to see no rain over the next five days, and is looking at below normal amounts of rainfall for the 6-10 day period.

That will really get corn and even soybean planting going in that state. While all of this wet weather has been occurring, conditions have been too dry in northern Brazil?but that is changing as well. Rains have started to fall across northern soybean growing areas of Brazil over the past 48 hours, and rains will fall on a consistent basis there over the next ten days to even two weeks (with some big totals eventually being recorded).

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