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USDA: Corn Stocks Tighten

DES MOINES, Iowa (—The U.S. corn stocks will keep getting tighter, heading towards the end of the marketing year, according to the USDA.

As a result, the CME Group corn market traded higher most of the session, but ended lower.

At the close, the May corn futures finished 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.88 per bushel. Dec. corn futures closed 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.12.
May soybean futures finished 8 3/4 cents lower at $9.84 1/2. The Nov. soybean futures clolsed 6 3/4 cents lower at $9.65 1/4. 

The May soyoil futures finished $0.04 lower at $30.96. The May soymeal futures closed $3.10 per short ton lower at $331.00. 

May wheat futures ended 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.93 1/4. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.54 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 288 points lower.


In its March Supply/Demand Report, the government estimates the U.S. corn 2014-15 carryover at 1.77 billion bushels, compared to the expected 1.822 billion bushels, and the USDA’s February estimate of 1.827 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. soybean 2014-15 carryover at 385 million bushels, vs. the trade’s expectations of 379 million bushels, and the February estimate of 385 million bushels. 

The USDA pegged the U.S. wheat carryout at 691 million bushels, compared with the  trade’s expectation of 696 million.

Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities says the report is negative for soybeans, maybe a bit positive for corn. “I think the USDA raised the soybean carryout higher than expected. The government raised its soybean export estimate by 50 million bushels. But, the higher carryout number is negative.”

He adds, “A higher U.S. Dollar is weighing on the markets, possibly capping gains.”

Anne Frick, Sr. VP/Futures Research, Jefferies Bache, LLC, says that the soybean Supply/Demand numbers were “déjà vu all over again”, to quote Yogi Berra. "No significant change in world soybean or product numbers and no change in U.S. soybean or products supply/demand, except for change in 2013/14 soybean oil use in methyl ester (increase of 60 mil lbs from previously) to reflect Friday’s reported date from EIA.  That came out of other domestic.  

Frick ddd, "I don't see any change in price forecasts.  A real snoozer of a report. Attention will be on the survey based, and hence, more important reports, at the end of the month (Mar. 1 stocks and new crop planting intentions.)," Frick says.


For Brazil, the USDA pegged the country’s 2014-15 soybean production at 94.5    million metric tons, compared with the trade’s expectation of 93.9 million metric tons, and its February estimate of 94.5 mmt. Argentina’s soybean output  was totaled at 56.0 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectations of 56.6 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 56.0 mmt.

For corn, the Brazil 2014-5 crop size is expected at 75.0 mmt, vs. the trade’s expectation of 74.6 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 75.0 mmt. Argentina’s corn output is pegged at 23.5 mmt, compared with the trade’s expectation of 23.3 mmt, and the USDA’s February estimate of 23.0 mmt.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group v-p, says it was not much of a report, but the market seems to want to buy grain and sell oilseeds, that was probably the message of the report both us and international.

"Corn ending stocks sown slightly, wheat and sbs ending stocks unchanged.  Negative beans, neutral to friendly corn and wheat,” Scoville says.
He sees the WASDE data slightly friendly to soybeans, as South America production left unchanged and ending stocks are lower.
“World Corn shows slight increase in production for Argentina as expected and lower for South Africa as expected.  Slightly friendly on lower world ending stocks. World wheat data shows slightly lower ending stocks but should be mostly neutral.”

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