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USDA data is neutral to negative for corn, soybean markets

World production numbers were left unchanged.

The pile of U.S. soybeans is getting smaller than expected, according to the USDA.

At the close, the March corn futures closed 4 1/2¢ higher at $5.91. May futures ended 4 1/4¢ higher at $5.93. July corn futures closed 3¢ higher at $5.91. 
January soybean futures finished 3 1/2¢ higher at $12.64. 

March soybean futures settled 3 1/4¢ higher at $12.72 1/2. May soybean futures ended 2 3/4¢ higher at $12.78.

March wheat futures settled 17 3/4¢ lower at $7.76.
Jan. soymeal futures closed 2.50 per short ton higher at $359.70.

Jan. soy oil futures settled 0.70 of a cent lower at 54.85 per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.74 per barrel lower at $70.62 the U.S. Dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher (+0.09%) at 35,785.

On Thursday, the USDA released its December Supply/Demand and WASDE Reports.

2021/2022 U.S. Ending Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. new-crop ending stocks at 1.49 billion bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 1.48 billion bushels and the November estimate of 1.49 billion bushels. 

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 340 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 352 million bushels today. In November, the USDA’s estimate was 340 million.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 598 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 589 million and compared with the November estimate of 583 million bushels. 

2021/2022 World Ending Stocks

On Thursday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 305.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 304 mmt. and the USDA’s November estimate of 304.4 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 102 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 104.3 mmt. and the USDA’s November estimate of 103.8 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 278.1 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 276.5 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 275.8 mmt.


On Thursday, the USDA pegged the 2021 Brazilian soybean production at 144.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s estimate last month of 144.0 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 118.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 118.26 mmt. and the USDA’s November estimate of 118.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 49.5 mmt. vs. the USDA’s November estimate of 49.5 mmt.

Trade response

PJ Quaid, R.J. O’Brien broker, says that today’s report made little change in monthly numbers.

“USDA kicked the can down the road for beans and corn. In corn, the differed months are showing a lot more weakness than the front months, same in the soybean market. Corn and bean volitility is getting hit post-report,” Quaid says. 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the USDA made little change, as expected. 

“No changes for corn or beans. Not much had been expected except for maybe a cut in bean exports going mostly to the bottom line. But the export pace is actually hanging in there, so USDA left it alone. The wheat world production estimate was bearish with a big increase for Australia. Australia has a quality problem this year but not a yield problem. All in all, pretty plain, not much meat here for bulls or bears,” Scoville says. 

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