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335957

USDA projects higher corn and soybean supply

Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2022-2023 U.S. ENDING STOCKS

For corn, USDA pegged the U.S. 2022-2023 ending stocks at 1.182 billion bushels. This is below the trade’s estimate of 1.212 billion bushels but above USDA's October estimate of 1.172 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 220 million bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 215 million bushels and USDA’s October estimate of 200 million bushels. 

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 571 million bushels, below October’s estimate of 576 million and the trade’s expectation of 577 million.

2022 PRODUCTION

With the 2022 harvest coming to a close, USDA is pegging U.S corn production at 13.930  billion bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 13.893 billion bushels and the October estimate of 13.895 billion bushels. 

Corn yield was pegged at 172.3 bushels per acre with 80.8 million harvested acres. This is above the trade’s expectation for yield, which was 171.9 bushels per acre, but right on track with the trade’s expectation for harvested acres. 

USDA put soybean production at 4.346 billion bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 4.324 billion bushels and the October estimate of 4.313 billion bushels.

Yield was pegged at 50.2 bushels per acre on 86.6 million harvested acres. The trade’s expectation going into today was 49.9 bushels per acre on 86.6 million harvested acres. 

Both corn and soybeans saw a 0.4 bushels per acre bump in yield from last month's report. 

2022-2023 WORLD ENDING STOCKS

USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 301.2 million metric tons (mmt) vs. the trade’s expectation of 300.6 mmt. Today reflects no change from USDA’s October estimate of 301.2 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 100.5 mmt, below the trade’s expectation of 100.9 mmt but reflecting no change from USDA's estimate last month of 100.5 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 267.5 mmt. This is slightly above the trade’s expectation of 266.7 mmt but reflects no change from the October estimate of 267.5 mmt.

2021-2022 WORLD ENDING STOCKS

USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 307.7 mmt vs. the trade’s expectation of 307.1 mmt and USDA’s October estimate of 307.1 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 94.7 mmt, up from the trade’s expectation of 92.4 mmt, and USDA's estimate last month of 92.4 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 276.3 mmt, on par with the trade’s expectation of 276 mmt and the October estimate of 276 mmt.

MORE FROM USDA

“This month’s 2022-2023 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, larger feed and residual use, and greater ending stocks,” USDA says in the report. “Feed and residual use is higher based on a larger crop. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels.

“The U.S. soybean outlook for 2022-2023 is for increased production, crush, and ending stocks…Higher yields in Iowa and Missouri account for most of the change in production. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels on an increased domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels to 220 million.”

TRADE REACTION

Nick Tsiolis, founder of Farmer's Keeper, says the increase in yield for corn and soybeans was a surprise.

"The trade expected little to no change pre-report," he says. "It appears that not all small crops get smaller." 

Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says today's report had "modest tweaks" to grain supply and demand.

"Ultimately, ending stocks for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat continue to remain historically tight, especially as harvest is just finishing and supplies of grain must again be rationed until the 2023 harvest," she says. "All eyes are now on global uncertainty with the Black Sea grain corridor agreement expiring on Nov. 19, and upcoming crop weather conditions in South America as their crop is nearly finished being planted."

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