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Weather: Harvest progress & rain ahead

The new Crop Progress Report indicates much of the soybean harvest is nearing completion. Nationally, 91% of soybeans are harvested, with the Midwest averaging around 95%. On a national scale, we are 1% behind the 2008-2012 average harvest percentage, although we have made considerable progress from earlier this year where many states were 10% or more behind schedule.

Corn harvest has been steady with 84% of the nation's corn harvested, an 11% increase from last week, putting us a respectable 5% ahead of the 2008-2012 average of 79%. In terms of the Midwest, an average of nearly 89% of corn has been harvested. Looking more closely into Iowa's weekly data, corn harvest advanced to 88% complete with 4.7 days that were suitable for fieldwork.

High-moisture corn was a continuing concern for famers, according to the Iowa Field Office. Above-normal weekly rainfall further improved soil mositure with topsoil moisture 61% adequate, and subsoil moisture 40% adequate. Soybean harvest is nearing completion at 98%, a full three days ahead of normal. Grain movement from farm to elevator was rated 51% moderate to heavy, with 95% of the state reporting adequate or surplus off-farm grain storage availability, 85% adequate on-farm. Last week, Illinois saw an average of 4.9 days suitable for fieldwork.

Corn harvest for the state of Illinois reached 93% complete, compared to the five-year average of 82%. Soybean harvest has proceeded to 97% complete, 4% above the five-year average of 93%. Statewide, temperatures averaged 0.8 degrees above normal with precipitation 0.13 inches below normal. Soil moisture is, on average, 71% adequate for topsoil, 47% adequate subsoil; 98% of the winter wheat crop has been planted, with 77% emerged. Minnesota's corn harvest has remained ahead of the normal pace, despite only 4.5 days rated suitable for fieldwork.

Average temperatures across the state were 34.1 degrees, 0.8 degrees below normal. Precipitation was close to normal with 0.44". Topsoil mositure is rated 83% adequate, with subsoil moisture 75% adequate. Corn harvest progress increased 14 % the last seven days, reaching 87% complete, around a week ahead of normal. Canola harvest has reached 95% complete, with the sunflower harvest still below normal at 79%, according to the Minnesota Field Office.

Switching gears, weather across the Plains and Midwest looks relatively dry through Friday. A potent upper-level bundle of energy will rotate through the Midwest Friday into Saturday, and this will spark widespread showers and even steady rainfall Saturday morning into the afternoon from extreme eastern Nebraska east into Iowa, Illinois, and north through southern and eastern Minnesota. Widespread 0.1-0.25" rains are possible with this feature with localized 0.5-0.75" amounts being advertised by the European model for Iowa, northwest Illinois, and southeast Minnesota.

Sunday another round of showers, some locally heavy, will spread across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley with additional rainfall likely, with 75% coverage of 0.5" or more possible from Iowa to Ohio, although confidence remains low due to substantial model spread.

With nearly five days suitable for fieldwork expected for much of the Midwest and Delta, and six possible for the Plains, national corn harvest percentage should increase to 92% to 94% complete, with soybean harvest likely to near completion at 96%. Winter wheat planting is already approaching completion nationally, with emerged wheat likely to increase to 90%, aided by near/slightly above-normal temperatures across the western Midwest/Plains the next five days.

Freese-Notis Weather/Weather Trades, Inc. Des Moines, Iowa Copyright 2012 - All Rights Reserved

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