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Weather woes continue in South America

Dry in southern Brazil and Argentina; central and northern Brazil fieldwork delays due to wet weather.

Unfortunately, the weather pattern remains much the same across South America heading into the second full week of February, week-ending February 19.

Dry and hot weather will continue across Argentina and southern Brazil while cooler and wetter weather persists across Southeast Brazil and much of Central and Northeast Brazil as well. Analysts’ expectations for the South America soybean crop have been widely reduced leading to upward pressure on prices; as the unfavorable weather conditions continue to unfold, there is plenty of justification for this upward climb.

Brazil weather

Precipitation will be feast or famine in Brazil this week. For the second full week of February 2022, this will be one of the warmest and driest from southern Mato Grosso do Sul to Rio Grande do Sul, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Meanwhile, from Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso, this will be one of the coolest and wettest second weeks of February in more than years. 

Hot weather will result in a rapid depletion of soil moistures in Argentina and southern Brazil, exacerbating dry conditions there. After a cooler start to the week in Argentina, temperatures will turn much hotter by the middle and into the second half of the week. While dry weather is favorable for fieldwork, the question is what is left to salvage of the crops remaining in the dry fields?

While dry and hot weather is unfavorable, too much rain may be a problem in central and northern Brazil. Wetter weather slows down harvest and could delay second-corn crop (safrinha) planting. If planting is delayed until late February or early March, then the safrinha crop risks going into critical stages of development in the dry season.


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