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3 Big Things Today, April 26

Soybeans Rise in Overnight Trading; Ethanol Production Falls to Lowest Level in Six Months.

1. Soybeans Higher After IGC Lowers Argentina Output Forecast

Soybeans were higher in overnight trading after the International Grains Council slashed its outlook on production in Argentina.

The South American country’s soybean crop is pegged to fall to 38 million metric tons due to hot, dry weather, IGC Senior Economist Darren Cooper said on Wednesday. The forecast is down from a prior outlook from the council for 43 million metric tons but on par with an estimate from Argentina’s Agriculture Ministry.

Projections for soybean output in Argentina have dropped from 56 million tons at the start of the growing season, Cooper said.

The IGC will publish its monthly Supply and Demand Report today.

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 5¢ to $10.44¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added $3.40 to $383.90 a short ton, and soy oil was unchanged at 31.06¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell ¾¢ to $3.95 a bushel overnight.

Wheat for May delivery fell 1¼¢ to $4.97¼ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures lost 3¢ to $5.23½ a bushel.

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2. Ethanol Production Drops to Lowest in More Than Six Months, Stockpiles Rise

Ethanol production plunged to the lowest in more than six months, again dropping below the million-barrel level.

Output in the week that ended on April 20 averaged 985,000 barrels a day, the Energy Information Administration said in a report on Wednesday. That’s down from 1.009 million barrels a day the prior week and the weakest output since October 6, according to the EIA.

The four-week moving average dropped to 1.015 million barrels a day, also the lowest since October.

Stockpiles, meanwhile, rose for the first time in six weeks. Inventories last week reached 21.701 million barrels, the EIA said. That’s up from 21.344 million a week earlier, and the first increase since the seven days that ended on March 9.

In other news, the USDA is expected to release its Weekly Export Sales Report this morning.

Old-crop corn sales are pegged by analysts from 800,000 to 1.2 million metric tons, while new-crop sales are forecast from 200,000 to 400,000 tons.

Soybean sales are seen from 400,000 to 700,000 tons for old crop and 400,000 to 700,000 tons for new crop. Old-crop wheat sales are pegged from a negative-100,000 tons to 200,000 tons, while new-crop sales are expected from 150,000 tons to 300,00 tons, according to Allendale.

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3. Frost Advisories Issued For Southern Plains Counties, Northern Flooding Still an Issue

Frost advisories have been issued in several counties in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and southwestern Kansas, according to the National Weather Service.

Frost formed this morning in the Southern Plains as temperatures dropped into the low 30s, the NWS said in a report early Thursday morning. It’s unlikely temperatures dropped low enough to hurt winter wheat plants that already have been plagued by extremely dry weather the past six months.

Farther north, flooding is still an issue in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa.

Several rivers and tributaries are still overflowing their banks due to snowmelt in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, according to NWS maps.

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