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3 Big Things Today, April 27

Soybeans Decline in Overnight Trading; IGC Lowers Monthly Bean Production Outlook.

1. Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher Overnight After Export Sales Report

Soybeans were lower in overnight trading after a lackluster export sales report for the oilseeds, while wheat was higher.

Sales of old-crop soybeans to overseas buyers in the week that ended on April 19 totaled 371,300 metric tons, down 64% from the previous week and 63% from the prior four-week average, according to the USDA.

For delivery in the 2018-2019 marketing year that starts on September 1, sales came in at 166,500, well below forecasts. Analysts had pegged both old- and new-crop sales from 400,000 to 700,000 tons.

Wheat sales, meanwhile, easily topped expectations at 297,200 tons, up noticeably from both the prior week and previous average. Analysts had expected old-crop sales from negative-100,000 to a plus-200,000 tons, according to Allendale.

New-crop sales were also robust at 280,700 metric tons. Consensus was for 150,000 to 300,000 tons.

Corn sales were well below expectations, coming in at 697,100 tons, down 36% from the previous week and 33% from the average, the USDA said. Analysts had pegged sales from 800,000 to 1.2 million tons for the old crop. New-crop sales were reported at 76,600 tons, missing projections from 200,000 to 400,000 tons.

Soybean futures for May delivery fell 4¢ to $10.35½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal rose 70¢ to $384 a short ton, and soy oil dropped 0.26¢ to 30.83¢ a pound.

Wheat for May delivery gained 1¼¢ to $4.90¾ a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures rose 2¼¢ to $5.23¼ a bushel.

Corn futures gained ½¢ to $3.95¾ a bushel overnight.


2. IGC’s Monthly Soybean Production Outlook Lowered, Wheat Output to Decline in 2018-2019

The International Grains Council lowered its 2017-2018 soybean production forecast amid declining Argentinean output. 

The London-based organization said in a report yesterday that soybean output will total 339 million metric tons this year, down from the March projection of 341 million tons. The total is also down 2% from last year.

Production in Argentina will total 55 million metric tons in 2017-2018 but will then decline to 38 million tons a year later, the IGC said. Dry weather has plagued the South American country for most of its growing season.

Brazil will make up some of the losses – but not much. Output this year is pegged at 114.1 million tons but will rise to 116 million next year, the council said.

All-wheat output in the 2017-2018 marketing year will rise to 758.4 million metric tons, up from 754.2 million a year earlier. Production, however, will decline to 739 million tons in 2018-2019, according to the IGC.

Declines in Argentina, Russia, and the European Union will lead output lower next year.

Corn production in the 2017-2018 marketing year was pegged at 1.046 billion tons, well below the prior year’s 1.088 billion. Next year, however, output is expected to rise to 1.054 billion tons, the agency said.


3. Rain in Forecast For Southern Plains; Flooding Still a Problem in Northern Midwest

Rain is in the forecast for parts of the Southern Plains this weekend with some storms expected to be strong, according to the National Weather Service.

“Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night across the western portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and then are expected to spread eastward Sunday into Monday,” the NWS said in a report early Friday morning. “Some storms could become strong to possibly severe Sunday and Monday.”

The agency gives the region a 20% chance of rain on Saturday, up to a 50% chance on Sunday and a 30% chance on Monday.

The threat of rain, however, disappears starting on Tuesday. Highs this weekend are forecast in the 70s and 80s, the NWS said.

Farther north, flooding is an ongoing problem in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. Several rivers and streams are still above flood stage as snow runoff continues.

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