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3 Big Things Today, April 8, 2022

Soybeans Slightly Higher Overnight; Weekly Grain Export Sales Rise.

1. Soybean Futures Modestly Higher Ahead of WASDE

Soybean futures were modestly higher while corn and wheat were slightly lower in overnight trading as investors square positions ahead of some government reports due out Friday.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and crop production reports at noon in Washington.

Corn stockpiles in the U.S. are expected to be pegged by the USDA at 1.415 billion bushels, down from the March outlook for 1.44 billion, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Global stocks likely will be little changed at 300.9 million metric tons.

Soybean inventories will be seen at 262 million bushels, down from the previous forecast for 285 million, the poll said. Globally, about 88.8 million metric tons will be in storage, down slightly from the previous outlook for 90 million tons.

Wheat stocks will be projected at 656 million bushels, up slightly from the 653 million bushels that were expected in the March WASDE report. World ending stocks will likely come in around 281.4 million metric tons, down from 281.5 million a month ago.

South American crop production also will be in focus as the trade is expecting the USDA to project Brazil’s soybean crop at 125.4 metric tons, down from 127 million a month earlier, Reuters reported.

Corn production in the South American country likely will be pegged at 115.1 million metric tons, up from the March outlook for 114 million tons, the report said.

Soybean output in Argentina will be seen by the USDA at 42.8 million metric tons, down from 43.5 million last month, and corn production probably will be pegged at 52 million metric tons, down from 53 million in March.

Soybean futures for May delivery rose 2¼¢ to $16.47¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose $1.50 to $461.70 a short ton, while soybean oil futures lost 0.19¢ to 72.83¢ a pound.

Corn futures fell 2¾¢ to $7.55 a bushel. 

Wheat for May delivery was unchanged at $10.20 a bushel while Kansas City futures lost 1¼¢ to $10.69½ a bushel.

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2. Weekly Grain Export Sales Rise, Soybean Sales Fall

Grain sales to overseas buyers rose week-to-week while soybean sales declined, according to the USDA.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on March 31 rose to 782,400 metric tons, up 23% from the previous week, the agency said in a report.

The total was still down 44% from the prior four-week average.

Mexico was the big buyer at 261,000 metric tons, followed by Japan at 216,000 tons and South Korea at 192,100 tons, the government said. Saudi Arabia bought 157,000 metric tons from U.S. supplies, and Spain purchased 64,100 tons. Sales would have been higher but an unnamed country canceled cargoes of 199,800 metric tons.

For the 2022-2023 marketing year, corn sales totaled 145,200 metric tons.

Exports for the week fell 13% to 1.63 million metric tons, the USDA said.

Wheat sales also were higher, rising 65% week-to-week to 156,300 metric tons. The total, however, was down 11% from the average, the agency said.

Indonesia bought 55,000 metric tons, Taiwan took 41,700 tons, Italy was in for 20,000 tons, Mexico purchased 18,000 tons, and Thailand took 15,100 tons. Guatemala nixed shipments totaling 15,000 tons, and the Philippines canceled orders for 9,700 tons.

Sales for the 2022-2023 marketing year were reported at 223,000 metric tons.

Exports for the week fell 11% to 309,800 metric tons, the USDA said.

Soybean sales, meanwhile, totaled 800,700 metric tons, down 39% from the previous week and 38% from the average, the government said.

China took 435,700 metric tons of U.S. supplies, Egypt bought 154,000 tons, Canada purchased 73,000 tons, an unnamed country was in for 31,600 tons, and Mexico bought 29,600 tons.

Sales for the next marketing year were reported at 298,500 metric tons, and exports for the week came in at 832,800 metric tons, up 24% from the previous week, the USDA said in its report.


3. Red-Flag Warnings Issued For Parts of Central U.S.   

Red-flag warnings remain in effect from north Texas to southern South Dakota while freeze warnings have been issued in parts of several states including Oklahoma and Kansas, according to the National Weather Service.

In southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, red-flag warnings have been issued.

Winds in parts of southwestern Kansas are forecast from 20 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Relative humidity will fall as low as 10% today and drop to 6% tomorrow, the agency said.

In southern South Dakota, winds will gust up to 30 mph and relative humidity will fall as low as 15%.

Freeze warnings have been issued for parts of northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas starting at 1 a.m. and lasting through 8 a.m. Saturday, the NWS said.

Temperatures in the region will range from 26˚F. to 32˚F. overnight, putting winter wheat plants that have resumed growth after overwintering in danger.

“Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing, faucets, and spigots,” the NWS said.

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