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3 Big Things Today, August 10
1. Wheat Falls on Argentina Prospects; Corn, Beans Little Changed
Wheat futures were lower overnight on optimism about the crop in Argentina and as cooler weather prevails in Europe.
Corn and beans were little changed ahead of today’s WASDE report.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said this week that it expects record wheat production in Argentina of about 19 million metric tons. The USDA has pegged output this year at 19.5 million tons.
Producers in the South American country reported planting into moist soils with cool weather – ideal conditions for this time of year.
In Europe, a heat wave finally broke with milder temperatures forecast for the weekend, according to Accuweather. While in some place the damage is already done, cooler weather likely will prevent further losses.
Wheat for September delivery fell 1¢ to $5.63½ a bushel in overnight trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City futures dropped 3¾¢ to $6.00½ a bushel.
Corn futures fell ¼¢ to $3.82½ a bushel overnight.
Soybean futures for November delivery lost 3½¢ to $9.00½ a bushel. Soy meal declined $1.30 to $333.60 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.04¢ to 28.92¢ a pound.
2. Analysts Expect USDA to Raise Yield, Production Forecasts in Today’s WASDE
Analysts are expecting the USDA will raise its outlook for corn and soybean yield and production when it releases its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today.
Corn production is pegged at 14.411 billion bushels on yields of 176.2 bushels an acre, according to a survey from Reuters. That’s up from last month’s forecast for output of 14.23 billion bushels on yield of 174 bushels an acre.
Analysts guessed between 171 bushels and 180.2 bushels an acre, and last year’s final figure was 176.6 bushels an acre. Production last year came in at 14.604 billion bushels, according to the agency.
Soybean production is seen at 4.407 billion bushels on yields of 49.6 bushels an acre, up from the USDA’s July projection of 4.31 billion bushels and 48.5 bushels an acre.
Estimates for soybeans ranged from 48 to 51.5 bushels an acre. Growers harvested 49.1 bushels an acre last year for total output of 4.392 billion bushels, government data show.
Corn stockpiles in the 2018-2019 marketing year that starts on September 1, meanwhile, are expected to come in around 1.636 billion bushels, up from the prior month’s outlook for 1.552 billion bushels.
Soybean inventories are pegged at 638 million bushels, well above the July forecast for 580 million, and wheat in storage is projected at 961 million bushels, down from last month’s estimate for 985 million, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters.
Analysts pegged 2017-2018 corn stocks at 2.021 billion bushels, down slightly from last month’s 2.027 billion, and bean inventories at 460 million vs. the July forecast for 465 million bushels.
3. Isolated Storms Forecast For Parts of Northern Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota
Storms are forecast for tonight in parts of northern Missouri where rain has been absent for much of the past few months, but they won’t be widespread.
“Patchy fog during the morning commute will give way to thunderstorm activity this afternoon across eastern Kansas into central Missouri,” the National Weather Service said in a report early Friday morning. “Coverage will be isolated, though gusty winds are possible where storms do develop.”
Thunderstorms are also possible today for much of southeastern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, and southwestern to central Wisconsin, according to the NWS.
Storms will be isolated today with lightning the main risk.
Rainfall is forecast for parts of southern Michigan and northern Indiana today and tonight, and while the storms won’t be too severe, the precipitation could become heavy at times and winds may gust up to 40 mph, the NWS said.