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3 Big Things Today, August 12, 2022

Wheat, Beans Lower Overnight; Export Sales of Corn Rise Week-to-Week

1. Wheat, Soybeans Lower Overnight Ahead of WASDE

Wheat futures plunged and soybeans were lower in overnight trading as ships continue to move from Ukraine ports and as investors square positions ahead of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

More ships hauling agricultural products from Ukraine have sailed in recent days, bringing the number of cargo vessels that have moved out of the country's ports to 12, according to the United Nations.

Frederick Kenney, the interim coordinator for the UN at the Joint Coordination Centre for the Black Sea Initiative, said in a statement that the ships carried 370,00 metric tons of grain and food stocks.

"We still have much work ahead of us to ensure that the implementation of the initiative translates into real results to address food insecurity around the globe and to stabilize global food markets," he said.

Still, shipments "are off with a very good start," Kenney said.

Investors also will be keeping an eye on today's WASDE report.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the USDA to forecast corn inventories at the end of the 2022-2023 marketing year at 1.402 billion bushels. If realized, that would be down from the 1.47 billion bushels projected by the agency last month.

Soybean stockpiles at the end of the 2022-2023 season likely will be forecast at 230 million bushels, according to the survey. That would be unchanged month-to-month.

All-wheat inventories probably will be pegged at 650 million bushels, according to the Reuters poll, which would be up from the 639 million bushels projected last month.

Global ending stocks of corn likely will come in around 309.82 million metric tons, which if realized would be down slightly from the July USDA estimate for 312.94 million metric tons.

World soybean supplies are expected at 99.47 million metric tons, Reuters said, down slightly from 99.61 million tons a month ago.

Wheat inventories at the end of the current 2022-2023 marketing year probably will come in at 268 million metric tons, the survey said. That would be up narrowly from the 267.52 million tons projected in July.

Wheat for September delivery fell 12 1/2¢ to $7.98 ¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade while Kansas City futures lost 14 1/4¢ to $8.75 a bushel.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1 1/4¢ to $6.26 ½ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery declined 6 1/2¢ to $14.42 a bushel. Soymeal was down $1.20 to $411.20 a short ton, while soybean oil futures lost 0.45¢ to 67.17¢ a pound.

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2. Corn Sales Last Week Rise as Beans Result in Net-Cancelations

Export sales of corn rose week-to-week while cancelations of soybeans outpaced purchases, according to the Ag Department.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on Aug. 4 came in at 191,800 metric tons, up from 57,900 tons a week earlier, the agency said in a report.

Mexico was the big buyer at 135,100 metric tons, followed by Japan at 62,300 tons and Honduras at 26,300 tons. Colombia bought 15,200 metric tons and El Salvador took 13,700 tons, the USDA said. An unnamed country canceled cargoes of 62,700 tons, Costa Rica nixed shipments totaling 8,600 tons and Guatemala canceled orders for 4,200 tons.

Sales for delivery in the 2022-2023 marketing year were reported at 191,300 metric tons, down from 256,700 tons a week earlier.

Exports came in at 705,400 metric tons, down 31% week-to-week.

Cancelation of soybean orders, meanwhile, outpaced purchases, resulting in a net-reduction of 66,700 metric tons for the week, the USDA said.

Germany bought 152,400 metric tons, the Netherlands took 151,300 tons, Japan was in for 87,100 tons, Pakistan purchased 66,300 tons and Indonesia purchased 61,400 tons.

Still, an unnamed country canceled shipments of 569,200 metric tons and China nixed cargoes of 66,400 tons, resulting in net-reductions of 66,700 metric tons, the government said.

Sales for the 2022-2023 marketing year totaled 477,200 metric tons versus 410,600 tons a week earlier. Exports for the week rose 70% to 894,500 metric tons.

Wheat sales totaled 369,200 metric tons, up 44% week-to-week and 34% from the prior four-week average, the USDA said.

Mexico purchased 99,400 metric tons from U.S. supplies, South Korea bought 62,000 tons, Taiwan took 50,900 tons, Japan was in for 41,200 tons and the Dominican Republic bought 36,200 tons.

The total would've been higher but an unknown destination canceled shipments of 19,500 tons and the Philippines nixed purchases of 3,100 tons.

Exports, however, totaled 615,300 metric tons, the highest since wheat's marketing year started on June 1, the USDA said in its report.


3. Scattered Storms in Iowa, Illinois Likely Followed by Hot Weather

Weather maps are relatively quiet heading into the weekend, though some scattered storms are likely in parts of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this morning, according to the National Weather Service.

No severe weather is expected.

The small amounts of rain will be followed tomorrow by hot and humid conditions with heat indexes forecast in the mid-90s, the agency said in a report early this morning.

It's going to be hot and dry in much of western Nebraska and western Kansas today, leading to the potential for wildfires.

"Hot temperatures, dry weather and breezy south winds will lead to an elevated fire weather threat for today," the NWS said.

Temperatures will remain high and humidity low through the weekend, creating prime conditions for fires both Saturday and Sunday, the agency said.

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