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3 Big Things Today, August 13
1. Beans, Grains Drop on Carryover Selling After Bearish WASDE Report
Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading as selling carried over from Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report in which the USDA raised its forecast for yield, production, and stockpiles beyond expectations.
The USDA said it now expects soybean production of 4.586 billion bushels on yields of 51.6 bushels an acre, easily topping forecasts for 4.407 billion bushels on yields of 49.6 bushels an acre. The government in July had expected output of 4.31 billion bushels on yield of 48.5 bushels an acre.
Stockpiles are seen at 785 million bushels, up from the prior forecast for 580 million and estimates for 638 million bushels.
Corn production was pegged at 14.586 billion bushels on yields of 178.4 bushel per acre, topping forecasts for 14.411 billion bushels and yields of 176.2 bushels an acre. The USDA last month estimated the crop at 14.23 billion bushels on yields of 174 bushels an acre.
Inventories of the grain are seen at 1.684 billion bushels, beating forecasts for 1.636 billion bushels and last month’s estimate of 1.552 billion.
Soybean futures for November delivery fell 8¼¢ to $8.53½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures dropped $1.10 to $322.20 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.24¢ to 28.17¢ a pound.
Corn for December delivery declined 4¼¢ to $3.67½ a bushel overnight.
Wheat for September delivery fell 8¼¢ to $5.38½ a bushel in in Chicago, while Kansas City futures dropped 9¾¢ to $5.75¼ a bushel.
2. Money Managers Curb Bearish Bets on Corn, Soybeans; Still Bullish Wheat
Money managers reduced their net-short positions, or bets on lower prices, in corn and soybeans last week.
Speculators were net short by 68,025 corn futures contracts in the week that ended on August 7, down from 95,613 contracts seven days earlier, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Investors were net short by 63,066 soybean contracts, down from 66,559 a week earlier, the CFTC said in a report.
Traders and hedgers reduced their net-short positions amid ongoing hot, dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt that’s brought down crop ratings. Much of northern Missouri, eastern Kansas, and southern Iowa have seen little rain in the past 30 days.
A pocket of exceptional drought, the worst-possible rating, has formed in the region, most of which is in an extreme drought, the second-worst rating, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Money managers held net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in wheat, as adverse weather in several producing areas including the European Union, the so-called Black Sea region, and Australia curb global production.
Investors were net long by 66,351 soft red winter wheat contracts, up from 51,277 a week earlier, the CFTC said. Speculators were held 53,732 net-long positions in hard red winter wheat, up from 37,981 futures contracts a week earlier, the government said.
The Weekly Commitment of Traders Report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.
The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.
A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.
3. Thunderstorms Moving Through Oklahoma May Bring Rain to Northern Missouri
Thunderstorms are expected for much of the week in parts of northern Missouri where rain has been fleeting for the past month.
The storms aren’t expected to turn severe but are forecast to start today and last throughout the week, according to the National Weather Service.
Commodity Weather Group’s Joel Widenor said last week that this weather event, which has moved up through Texas and Oklahoma, may spell relief for some farmers in the area.
The storm is moving north through Oklahoma, where rain showers combined with some thunderstorms are expected today.
As much as 1½ inches is expected in parts of the state today, with up to 4 inches forecast through midweek, the NWS said in a report early Monday morning.