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3 Big Things Today, August 14

Corn, Beans Little Changed Overnight; Export Inspections Decline Week to Week.

1. Corn, Beans Little Changed Overnight on Conditions Vs. Production

Corn and beans were little changed overnight, as investors weigh declining crop conditions against rising production forecasts.

The USDA yesterday said corn was 70% good or excellent as of Sunday, down from 71% the prior week. About 66% of the soybean crop earned top ratings, down by a percentage point from seven days earlier.

Still, the government last week estimated the corn crop at 14.586 billion bushels on yields of 178.4 bushels an acre, up from the prior month’s outlook for 14.23 billion on yields of 174 bushels an acre.

Inventories of the grain are seen at 1.684 billion bushels, beating forecasts for 1.636 billion bushels and last month’s estimate of 1.552 billion.

Soybean output was forecast by the USDA at 4.586 billion bushels on yields of 51.6 bushels an acre, up from 4.31 billion bushels and yields of 48.5 bushels an acre.

Stockpiles are pegged at 785 million bushels, up from the prior forecast for 580 million and estimates for 638 million bushels.  

Corn futures for December delivery rose 2¼¢ to $3.72¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery gained 1¢ to $8.69¾ a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal futures added $1.80 to $330.60 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.13¢ to 28.54¢ a pound.

Wheat futures improved overnight on bargain hunting after yesterday’s double-digit loss. Prices fell around 15¢ on Monday amid easing global weather conditions. That prompted investors looking for deals to jump onto the long side.

Wheat for September delivery rose 6¾¢ to $5.60¼ a bushel in in Chicago, while Kansas City futures added 5¾¢ to $5.72½ a bushel.

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2. Export Inspections Decline Week to Week, Assessments Still Trail Year-Ago Pace

Export inspections of corn and beans were both lower week to week, while wheat assessments rose.

Inspections of corn in the seven days that ended on August 9 totaled 1.26 million metric tons, the USDA said in a report.

That’s down from 1.29 million last week, but up from only 761,317 during the same week a year earlier, according to the government.

Soybean assessments last week totaled 580,824 metric tons, down from 893,158 tons seven days earlier. The USDA inspected 590,887 tons of the oilseeds during the same week in 2017.

Wheat inspections, meanwhile, rose to 426,854 metric tons from 326,584 tons last week, the government said. Still, that’s down from 511,624 tons during the same time frame last year.

On an annual basis, inspections of all three crops are down.

Corn assessments since the start of the 2017-2018 marketing year on September 1 are at 54 million metric tons, down from the 54.5 million tons that were inspected during the same time frame a year earlier, according to the government.

Soybean inspections also are at 54 million tons, down from 55.7 million last year.

Wheat inspections since the start of the grain’s marketing year on June 1 are at 3.82 million tons, down from 6.18 million during the same period a year earlier, the USDA said.

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3. Storms Moving Through Oklahoma Spur Flash Flood Watches, Advisories

Parts of eastern Oklahoma and a sliver of northwestern Arkansas have an 80% chance of thunderstorms today as a storm system makes its way north out of Texas.

Flash flood watches and flood advisories are in effect for the region as the storms move through, according to the National Weather Service.

“Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall are expected to affect eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through Wednesday,” the NWS said in a report early Tuesday morning. “There will be breaks in the rainfall at any one location, but when it is raining, the rainfall rates will be high enough to cause some higher totals.”

Two to 4 inches of rain are likely in most locations during the storms, with isolated amounts of up to 7 inches possible in some areas, the agency said.

That could lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas and along creeks and streams, the NWS said.

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