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3 Big Things Today, August 29, 2022

Corn Higher, Beans Lower Overnight; Investors Boost Bullish Bets

1. Corn Higher, Soybeans Lower in Overnight Trading

Corn was higher in overnight trading after the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicated reduced year-over-year production while soybeans were lower as participants forecast larger output.

U.S. corn growers are expected to produce 13.759 billion bushels on yield of 168.1 bushels an acre, Pro Farmer said in its final crop estimates after its four-day tour across the Midwest.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier this month projected production at 14.359 billion bushels on yield of 175.4 bushel an acre.

Soybean production in the U.S. is seen by tour participants at 4.535 billion bushels on yield of 51.7 bushels an acre. That compares with the USDA outlook for output of 4.531 billion bushels on yield of 51.9 bushels an acre.

Iowa and Illinois, the biggest producers of both crops, showed the most potential, according to data from the tour.

Corn output in both states were pegged at 198 bushels an acre. The USDA forecast corn output in the current marketing year at 205 bushels an acre in Iowa and 203 bushels in Illinois. 

Soybean production in Iowa was seen by the tour at 60 bushels an acre and in Illinois it's forecast at 64 bushels an acre. The government has projected bean yield in Iowa at 58 bushels an acre and in Illinois at 66 bushels an acre. 

Corn futures for December delivery rose 6 3/4¢ to $6.71 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 19 1/4¢ to $14.42 a bushel. Soymeal was down $2.10 to $426.40 a short ton, while soybean oil futures were down 1.1¢ to 65.78¢ a pound.

Wheat for December delivery lost 6 1/4¢ to $7.99 a bushel while Kansas City futures declined 8 3/4¢ to $8.73 ½ a bushel.

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2. Investors Raise Bullish Bets on Corn, Beans

Money managers raised their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in both corn and soybeans in the seven days that ended on Aug. 23, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

 Investors raised their bullish bets in corn to a net-175,527 futures contracts, the CFTC said in a report.

That's up from 142,646 contracts a week earlier and the largest such position since June 28.

Speculators increase their net-longs in soybeans to 111,345 contracts last week, up from 101,502 contracts seven days earlier and also the largest bullish position since June 28, the CFTC said.

In wheat, hedge funds and other large money managers raised their bullish bets in hard-red winter futures last week to a net-8,824 contracts, up from 7,231 contracts and the largest such position since July 26, the agency said.

Soft-red winter wheat was the outlier as speculators increased their net-short positions, or bets on lower prices, to a net-29,231 contracts last week.

That's up from 21,830 contracts a week earlier and the largest bearish position since the seven days that ended on Feb. 15, the CFTC said in its report.

The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Storms Forecast For Parts of Iowa and Illinois Monday

Scattered showers are forecast for much of eastern Nebraska and the entirety of Iowa today with some areas of severe storms likely, according to the National Weather Service.

The main hazards with any strong storms that hit the region are large hail and gusty winds, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

"A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out, however, the greater threat for organized severe weather should remain south of the area," the agency said. "Guys winds, hail and lightning will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms."

In northern Illinois, an isolated thunderstorm is possible today before a line of storms pushes eas into north-central Indiana. Strong winds are the primary concern, the NWS said.

"Damaging wind gusts will be possible within this line of thunderstorms," the agency said. "Best chances for severe weather will be between 9 p.m. and 11 p.m."

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