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3 Big Things Today, August 31, 2022

Soybeans, Grains Lower Overnight; Ukraine Grain Shipments Tick Up

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Drop in Overnight Trading

Soybeans plunged and grains were lower on favorable weather in parts of the U.S. and other growing countries.

Some rain fell earlier this week in parts of central and southeastern Illinois, northern and eastern Indiana, southern Ohio, northern Kentucky and norther Arkansas, according to Commodity Weather Group.

"Scattered rains in central and southeastern Midwest Monday (and) Tuesday and broader 11- to 15-day rains limit expansion of dryness," CWG said in a report.

Still, a drier pattern is expected through the weekend other than some spotty showers in the upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains, the forecaster said.

Rain in Europe will expand the next two weeks, boosting wheat crops, though the precipitation will have "minimal" benefits for corn.  

Showers in southern Brazil will boost filling wheat this week and expand to northern states next week, which should help with soil moisture for corn and beans that will be planted later, CWG said.

About 57% of the U.S. soybean crop was in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, unchanged week-to-week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report. Four percent of the crop was dropping leaves and 91% was setting pods.

About 54% of U.S. corn earned top ratings last week, down a percentage point, the government said. Eight percent of corn was mature, 46% was dented and 86% was in the dough stage at the start of the week.

Half the spring-wheat crop was in the bin as of Sunday, up from 33% a week ago but behind the prior five-year average of 71%, the USDA said. Around 68% was in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, up from 64% a week earlier. At the same point in 2021, only 11% earned top ratings.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 12 1/4¢ to $14.20 ¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was down $4.70 to $419.80 a short ton, while soybean oil futures dropped 0.27¢ to 66.08¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery lost 8 3/4¢ to $6.68 ½ a bushel.

Wheat for December delivery fell 7¢ to $8.13 ¼ a bushel while Kansas City futures declined 7 1/2¢ to $8.90 ¼ a bushel.

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2. Ukraine Shipments Hit 1.5 Million Tons as First Cargo Arrives in Africa

Ukraine has now shipped about 1.5 million metric tons of agricultural products since a deal was reached to get grain and other products out of the war-torn country.

The ships left on around 61 cargo carriers under the deal that was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations, according to the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry.

The first ship carrying agricultural products arrived in Africa yesterday, a milestone considering one of the goals of getting grain out of Ukraine was to boost food security in the region.

"This grain is among the first shipments of Ukrainian agricultural products exported from the Black Sea to reach some of the world's most food-insecure countries since the beginning of Russia's unjustified, full-scale attack on Ukraine Feb. 24," Anthony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, said in a statement yesterday.

The ship, called the Brave Commander, was carrying 23,300 metric tons of Ukrainian grain and docked in Djibouti, the statement said.

Ukraine's agricultural exports may double by October from July to 6 million to 6.5 million metric tons, Commerzbank analysts said in a note to clients, citing Mykola Solskyj, Ukraine's agriculture minister.

"At the same time, however, a lower supply of grains overall can be expected," the analysts said.

The country's grain crop is forecast at about 50 million metric tons, down about 40% year-over-year, they said. Grain shipments also are down about 50% from last year's level.

That likely will limit downside in wheat, at least for now.


3. Scattered Severe Storms Possible Over Parts of Nebraska Wednesday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in southern Nebraska today, some of which have the potential to be severe, according to the National Weather Service.

The best chances for storms will be in central Nebraska to the Kansas state line, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Winds may gust up to 60 miles an hour and penny-sized hail is possible, the agency said.

Storms also may develop further south in parts of Oklahoma and north Texas tonight, though the potential for severe weather is low. Some strong winds may hit the area, the NWS said.

Rain is forecast for much of the areas each day through Tuesday which the strongest chances being tomorrow across southern Oklahoma and north Texas, the agency said.

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