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3 Big Things Today, February 9, 2022

Soybeans Higher in Overnight Trading; Ag Exports Jumped to Record in 2021.

1. Soybean Futures Up Ahead of WASDE Report

Soybean futures surged overnight and corn was higher ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The USDA likely will make minor reductions to its domestic stockpiles estimates in today’s report, according to data from Dow Jones.

Investors likely will focus on the agency’s South American outlook.

The U.S. Agriculture Department likely will peg Brazilian soybean output at 133 million metric tons, down from January’s forecast for 139 million tons, according to analysts polled by Dow Jones.

Corn output in the South American country is seen at 113 million metric tons, down from 115 million tons forecast last month, the survey said.

Dry weather has led to reductions in forecasts for Brazil’s bean and corn crops. Some showers recently may have helped plants though most of the precipitation was too late.

Brazilian consultancy AgRural on January 31 tripped its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop to 128.5 million metric tons, down from a prior outlook for 133.4 million tons.

Hot and dry weather affected Mato Grosso do Sul, curbing yields, AgRural said.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE report at noon in Washington today.

Soybean futures for March delivery jumped 11½¢ to $15.80½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was up $1.60 to $455.70 a short ton, and soybean oil futures added 0.6¢ to 63.95¢ a pound.

Corn futures for March delivery gained 3¾¢ to $6.36 a bushel.  

Wheat for March delivery fell 3¢ to $7.75¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures dropped 2¢ to $7.99¼ a bushel.

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2. Agricultural Exports Jumped to Record in 2021, USDA Says

Exports of agricultural products jumped to a record in 2021, the U.S. Ag Department said in a report.

The value of agricultural shipments totaled $177 billion last year, up 18% year-over-year and 15% above the record set in 2014, the agency said.

“These record-breaking trade numbers demonstrate that U.S. agriculture is incredibly resilient as it continues to provide high-quality, cost-competitive farm and food products to customers around the globe,” Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement.

Corn exports last year more than doubled to $18.7 billion, soybean shipments totaled $27.4 billion, up 7.3%, and the value of wheat exports jumped 15% to $7.25 billion, the USDA said.

Soybean meal exports in 2021 rose 20% to $5.66 billion. The value of soybean oil shipments, however, fell almost 8% to $908.5 million, the government said.

Six of the top 10 export markets – China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, the Philippines, and Colombia – all set new records for imports.

China led importers, purchasing $33 billion in U.S. agricultural products, a 25% increase year-over-year. Mexico took the second spot, importing $25.5 billion worth of goods, a 39% increase, the USDA said.

Canada fell to third, importing $25 billion in U.S. ag products, up 12% from 2020.

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3. Dry Weather Creates Dangerous Fire Conditions in Central U.S.

Weather maps are relatively quiet this morning, though persistent dry weather in parts of the central Midwest have led to elevated fire risk, according to the National Weather Service.

Fire danger is forecast in much of central and eastern Nebraska and parts of southwestern and west-central Iowa today, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Winds will gust from 25 to 35 mph and relative humidity will drop as low as 20% today, the agency said.

Dry weather also is creating tinderbox-like conditions in southwestern Kansas.

“Moderately gusty northwest winds and lower relative humidity will create an elevated fire risk for a few hours this afternoon,” the NWS said.

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