3 Big Things Today, January 12
1. Grains, Beans Little Change Overnight Ahead of Friday’s USDA Reports
Corn and soybean futures were little changed ahead of several reports due today from the USDA.
The USDA is expected to leave its corn and soybean production estimates little changed. Corn stockpiles are expected to be down from December, while soybean inventories are forecast to be revised higher, according to an aggregation of analyst estimates.
Fundamentally, not much has changed. Rain in parts of Argentina likely will help crops, but there are still dry areas in the South American country.
Winter wheat got a nice blanket of snow in the U.S., which will help protect it from further winterkill damage, though the extent of the harm from the late-December weather is still unknown.
Corn futures for March delivery rose ½¢ to $3.49¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybeans for March delivery added ½¢ to $9.50½ a bushel overnight. Soy meal rose 30¢ to $313.40 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.02¢ to 33.13¢ a pound.
Wheat for March delivery added ¾¢ to $4.34 a bushel overnight. Kansas City futures gained ½¢ to $4.40¾ a bushel.
2. Several Reports Due Out Friday Including WASDE, Grain Stocks, Wheat Seedings
It’s a big day with several important reports due out including the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), annual crop production, grain stocks, and winter wheat and canola seedings, all of which are scheduled to be released at noon in Washington.
For WASDE, the average estimate for corn production is 14.579 billion bushels on yield of 175.4 bushels an acre, little change from the December outlook. Soybean output is pegged at 4.427 billion bushels on yield of 49.5 bushels an acre, analysts said, also little changed from last month.
U.S. inventories of corn at the end of the marketing year on August 31 will probably be pegged at 2.422 billion bushels vs. a prior outlook for 2.437 billion and the previous year’s 2.295 billion bushels. Stockpiles of soybeans are seen at 472 million bushels, up from the prior month’s 445 million and last year’s 301 million bushels.
Corn stockpiles on December 1 likely totaled 12.431 billion bushels, which is slightly higher than the prior year’s 12.386 billion bushels. Soybean inventories at the start of last month likely will be reported at 3.181 billion bushels vs. 2.898 billion bushels in 2016.
Wheat ending stockpiles on May 31, the end of the grain’s marketing year, are pegged at 959 million bushels. Growers likely seeded 31.3 million acres with winter wheat last year, including 22.3 million acres of hard red winter varieties and 5.56 million acres of soft red winter wheat.
3. Winter Storms Move East, Drop Snow, Ice, Wind on Much of Eastern U.S.
The storm that slammed the central Midwest yesterday has moved east and is now taking a shot at the eastern Midwest and threatening the Northeast.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for several states from eastern Illinois northeast to the Maine coast, the National Weather Service said in a report early Friday morning. A winter storm warning is following the same track, starting as far south as Arkansas and stretching to the northeastern Atlantic coast.
As much as 5 inches of snow are expected in southern Indiana starting today, along with strong winds and ice accumulations, according to the NWS. The weather outlook is similar throughout the entire length of the storm system.
Gale warnings are in effect for parts of western Michigan, northern Indiana, and eastern Illinois, according to the agency. Farther east in parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania, flood warnings have been issued for several counties, as reports roll in of runoff causing rivers and tributaries to overflow their banks.
The winter storm warnings and advisories are expected to last throughout today and tomorrow, the NWS said.