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3 Big Things Today, January 12, 2022

Soybeans, Wheat Lower Overnight; China to Keep Tariffs on DDGS.

1. Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower in Overnight Trading

Soybeans and wheat were lower overnight while corn futures were little changed as investors square positions ahead of several reports set to be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), crop production, grain stocks, winter-wheat seedings, and world agricultural production reports, among others, are due out today.

The government likely will forecast U.S. soybean inventories at the end of the marketing year on Aug. 31 at about 348 million bushels, up from the December outlook for 340 million bushels, according to a survey of analysts by Reuters.

Corn stockpiles will probably be seen at 1.472 billion bushels, down from last month’s projection of 1.493 billion bushels, the poll said.

In its quarterly grain stocks report, soybean inventories on December 1 probably totaled 3.13 billion bushels, the Reuters survey said, which if realized would be up from 2.93 billion a year earlier.

Corn stocks likely will come in at 11.6 billion bushels, up slightly from 11.3 billion last year.

All wheat in storage at the beginning of December probably will be pegged at 1.42 billion bushels, the poll said. That would be down from 1.67 billion bushels at the same time in 2020.

Traders are still keeping an eye on South America.

Brazilian consultancy Conab on Tuesday said it now expects the South American country’s soybean production at 140.5 million metric tons, down from the December outlook for 142.8 million.

Total corn production in Brazil is now forecast at 112.9 million metric tons, down from last month’s estimate of 117.2 million.

Soybean futures for March delivery dropped 5¼¢ to $13.81¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal lost $3.30 to $409.80 a short ton and soy oil rose 0.11¢ to 58.98¢ a pound.

Wheat futures for March delivery declined 4½¢ to $7.65¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 3¾¢ to $7.88 a bushel.

Corn futures for March delivery fell ¼¢ to $6.00¾ a bushel.

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2. China DDG Tariffs to Remain While Review Conducted

China will continue to impose import tariffs on dried distillers’ grains with solubles (DDGS) from the U.S. as it reviews the levies, the country’s Commerce Ministry said yesterday.

DDGs are the remnants of corn used to make ethanol. The U.S. ethanol industry has the capacity to produce 44 million metric tons of DDGS, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

A review of the tariffs was requested by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association at the behest of the Asian nation’s DDG industry, World Grain reported.

China has a 42.2% to 53.7% anti-dumping duty on imported dried distillers’ grains and anti-subsidy tariffs of 11.2% to 12%. The import levies were first introduced in 2017.

Mexico was the largest importer of DDGS in 2020-2021, purchasing more than 18% of all exports, the U.S. Grains Council said. Vietnam was the second-largest buyer, followed by South Korea, Turkey, and Indonesia.

In the first 10 months of 2021, the U.S. exported 9.52 million metric tons of DDGs to overseas buyers, according to the USDA. That’s up from 9.19 million metric tons the previous year.

China’s review is scheduled to start today and could take up to a year to complete, the ministry said.

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3. Winter-Storm Watch Issued For Parts of South Dakota, Minnesota

A winter-storm watch has been issued in eastern South Dakota, western Minnesota, and counties in northwestern Iowa, according to the National Weather Service.

Heavy snow is forecast to start tomorrow evening with up to 8 inches possible, the NWS said in a report early this morning.  

Northerly winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph on Friday, which could reduce visibility.

Farther west in parts of the Nebraska panhandle, a high-wind watch has been issued for tomorrow and Friday, the agency said.

Winds will be sustained from 25 to 40 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph expected, the NWS said.

“The high winds could blow down large trees and damage roofs, small outbuildings, and signs,” the agency said. “Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”

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