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3 Big Things Today, July 2, 2018

Weather takes center stage at the CME Group.

1. The CME Group's farm futures will be trading crop weather and the prospects of trade tariff improvement.

In overnight trading, September corn futures are ¼¢ higher at $3.59¾4; December futures are unchanged at $3.71.

August soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $8.65; November soybean futures are 1¾¢ higher at $8.81.

September wheat futures are 6¢ higher at $5.07. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 8¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 141 points lower.

This week starts the third fiscal quarter, and the second half of the year. For investors, it will be a shortened week. The U.S. equity markets open for a half day on Tuesday and closed on Wednesday for the 4th of July holiday.

Also, this week will have a number of reports that investors can use to trade the markets.

The monthly Jobs Report will be released Friday, while eyes will be on the manufacturing sector and the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting to be released.

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2. Investors will  get a new number Monday from the USDA Crop Progress Report at 3:00 p.m. CDT.

This week’s grain market will be squarely focused on crop weather and USDA crop condition ratings.

Investors will also be watching for any progress on the trade tariffs, with July 6 being the date that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods go into effect.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says he would like to see the corn market improve its chart positions this week as a result of lower crop ratings.

“The USDA Crop Conditions Report should show ratings for corn and soybeans down 1% to 2%. Hot conditions in the central and southern Corn Belt, along with too wet super-saturated soil in the northern Corn Belt, is doing damage to both crops,” Kluis stated Monday in a daily note to customers.
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3. The next 15 days of crop weather looks like a good mix of warm and wet conditions.

David Tolleris, WxRisk.com, says the weekend temperatures didn’t reach to extremes in the western Corn Belt, but the eastern Corn Belt did receive expected hot weather.

“Some rain went through South Dakota and into southern Minnesota and into Wisconsin on Sunday,” Tolleris noted in a daily note to customers Monday.      

The one- to five-day forecast is pretty much unchanged from Friday, according to WxRisk.com.

“The forecast has two systems of rain first over the Dakotas, Minnesota, and into northern Illinois. Most of the Corn Belt is forecast to get 1 to 3 inches of rain with lesser amounts in the eastern Corn Belt,” Tolleris stated.   

In the 6- to 10-day forecast, the heat dome shows up in the U.S. southwest, just after the July 4th holiday.

“In the 11- to 15-day forecast, it stays hot in the eastern Corn Belt, but the central and northern Corn Belt areas have seasonal or cooler temps. Overall, it's dry but not hot for most of the Corn Belt,” Tolleris stated.

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