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3 Big Things Today, June 28

Senate Farm Bill could be passed today.

1. The CME Group's farm markets trade mostly lower, as investors are keeping their 'powder' dry for Friday's USDA data.

In overnight trading, the July corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.51. Dec. futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.51. July soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.65.  Nov. soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $8.86. Sep. wheat futures are 1/2¢ lower at $4.88.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.08 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

On Thursday, Investors will digest the estimates for the U.S.’s first quarter GDP growth, which is expected to show the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the first three months of 2018. Also, the weekly report on initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s June reading on manufacturing activity.

On the earnings side, today’s schedule is made up of notables such such as Nike.

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2. The month of June has not fared so well for the grain markets.

This week’s grain market has featured trading on crop-weather and trade tariff talk between China and the U.S. However, going forward, investors are squaring up positions ahead of Friday’s USDA June Acreage Report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report.

Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, says to expect choppy trade, until the data is released Friday.
Trade talk between the U.S. and China are going to take a few months to resolve. That will keep the market somewhat rangebound,” Kluis stated Thursday in a daily note to customers.
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3. USDA and the Senate are making the news this week for two separate farm safety net measures.

USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue is giving hisself until Labor Day to pull out a relief package for U.S. farmers, in response to the damage done from the trade tariffs between the U.S. and China. The USDA will not confirm what the relief package would look like or how it will pay for the farmers’ relief, only that it has a strategy to protect farmers financially.

On Thursday, the U.S. Senate is set to debate and possibly vote on its version of the new Farm Bill. The U.S. House has already passed its Farm Bill. Once the two chambers have passed Farm Bills, it will go to a conference committee, made up of members from both sides and the bill will also face scrutiny from any other Congressional committee’s that the bill’s funding may intrude upon. Above all of these steps is the factor of time. Amongst upcoming holiday breaks, upcoming elections, and rumors of a powerful Democrat that thinks a better Farm Bill could be approved in November, the President may not see a Farm Bill on his desk to sign into law for months.

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