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3 Big Things Today, July 28, 2022

Soybeans, Grains Rise Overnight; Weekly Ethanol Production Declines

1. Soybean and Grain Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Soybean and corn futures rose in overnight trading as hot, dry weather is expected in much of the U.S. Midwest next week and wheat gained on uncertainty about what's going on with exports from Ukraine.

Temperatures next week are expected to be well above normal from South Dakota through Kansas and from western Nebraska east into central Illinois, maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show.

Precipitation, meanwhile, is expected to be below normal from Aug. 2-6 in almost exactly the same area that will see higher-than-normal temperatures, the NOAA said.

About 59% of the U.S. soybean crop was in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, down from 61% a week earlier, the Department of Agriculture said in a report this week.

Sixty-one percent of corn earned top ratings this week, down from 64% a week earlier, the USDA said.

For the next five days, however, a band of rain is expected in a long line stretching from southern Colorado east to the Atlantic seaboard, NOAA data show.

Wheat futures rose overnight on uncertainty about whether grain will begin shipping from Ukraine ports after an agreement was reached last week.

That deal was thrown into chaos when Russia bombed the Ukrainian port city of Odesa over the weekend. Since then, officials have said the ships will begin moving soon, but so far any movement has been slow, reportedly due to mines in the port.

Shipments from Ukraine have been mostly halted since late February when Russian forces started attaching the country.

Before the attacks began, Ukraine was forecast to ship 24 million metric tons of wheat, making it the third-largest exporter of the grain. The USDA now believes exports will total only 10 million metric tons.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 9 3/4¢ to $14.19 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal dropped $6.10 to $420 a short ton, while soybean oil futures added 1.47¢ to 60.66¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery jumped 13¢ to $6.16 a bushel.

Wheat for September delivery rose 15 1/4¢ to $8.05 ½ a bushel while Kansas City futures added 13 3/4¢ to $8.75 ½ a bushel.

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2. Ethanol Production Falls, Inventories Hit lowest Level in a Month

Ethanol output fell last week while inventories dropped to the lowest level in a month, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

Production of the biofuel declined to an average of 1.021 million barrels a day in the week that ended on July 22, the EIA said in a report.

That's down from 1.034 million barrels per day, on average, a week earlier.

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output fell to an average of 962,000 barrels a day from 973,000 barrels the previous week, the agency said.

Gulf Coast production dropped to an average of 23,000 barrels per day from 26,000 barrels the previous week.

That was the entirety of the losses as production elsewhere was unchanged.

East Coast production was unchanged week-to-week at 12,000 barrels per day and Rocky Mountain output was steady at 15,000 barrels a day, the government said.

West Coast production remained at 9,000 barrels a day, on average, for the ninth straight week.

Ethanol inventories, meanwhile, fell to 23.328 million barrels in the week through July 22, the agency said.

That's down from 23.553 million barrels a week earlier and the lowest level since the seven days that ended on June 24, the EIA said in its report.

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3. Thunderstorms Possible in Central Missouri and Illinois

Thunderstorms are possible today in parts of central Missouri and Illinois with some storms potentially turning severe, according to the National Weather Service.

"There is a chance of thunderstorms along and south of I-70 this afternoon and evening," the NWS said in a report early this morning. "Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this afternoon and evening."

Strong winds are the primary threat associated with the system.

Chances of storms persist throughout the weekend in the area, the agency said.

Further west in parts of Colorado and New Mexico, flood warnings are in effect as excessive rain continues to fall, the NWS said.

In eastern Colorado along the Kansas border, flash flooding is a threat as precipitation keeps falling in saturated areas. Storms will spread throughout the day and may result in flooding of low-lying areas, creeks, streams and canyons, the agency said.

Rain may continue throughout the night into Friday, increasing the chances for flash flooding, the NWS said.

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