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3 Big Things Today, June 10, 2022

Soybeans move lower this morning after a rally yesterday; corn exports rise 51% week over week.

1. Soybeans rally yesterday hitting many new contract highs but have moved lower this morning

On Thursday, soybean futures led the rally with many new contract highs in place ahead of today’s USDA report. 

“July soybeans were up 29 cents at close with November up 14 cents. July corn was up 8 cents, but that was nearly a dime off the day’s high,” says Al Kluis, Kluis Commodity Advisors.

December corn ended the day lower. Wheat posted a wide trading range yesterday but was down at close 1 to 11 cents. In the overnight Globex trade, corn futures are down 4 cents, soybean futures are down 9 cents, and wheat futures are down 3 cents to up 3 cents.

“The cash prices for old crop grains seems to vary greatly across the Midwest, and it is barely the middle of June. Holding old crop bushels on the farm could command a sizable premium in the right region of the U.S.,” Kluis says.

Overnight, the trading range for July corn was 6 cents with prices landing at $7.69. The trading range for July soybeans was 13 cents; prices are down 9 cents to $17.60. CBOT wheat is down 3 cents. Minneapolis wheat is up 3 cents, and KC wheat futures are down 1 cent.

2. Corn sales rise 51% week over week; soybean sales were also up

From May 27 to June 2, corn sales for 2021/2022 rose 51% from the previous week and 19% from the prior four-week average, according to the USDA. Mexico took 89,500 metric tons, Japan purchased 76,500 tons, Colombia bought 34,400 tons, Venezuela took 28,300 tons, and Jamaica purchased 27,900 tons from U.S. supplies. The purchases were offset because of canceled shipments meant for Guatemala (27,300 tons) and unknown destinations (41,300 tons), the agency said.

For the 2022-2023 year, corn sales totaled 73,500,000 metric tons. Exports fell 13% to 1,381,600 tons from the previous week. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (344,900 tons), China (266,600 tons), Taiwan (144,400 tons), Japan (118,700 tons), and Colombia (84,700 tons).

Soybean sales for 2021/2022 also rose from the previous week and were up 41% from the prior four-week average. China purchased 128,900 tons, Egypt (117,500 tons, Germany (66,000 tons), Pakistan (55,000 tons), and Mexico (29,200 tons. The purchases were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (27,000 tons) and South Korea (300 tons).

For the 2022-2023 year, sales were 595,300 tons, most of which went to Pakistan (297,000 tons), and China (261,000 tons). At 476,500 tons, exports were up 17% from the previous week, but down 17% from the prior four-week average.  The destinations were primarily to Mexico (190,200 tons), Germany (66,000 tons), Egypt (52,500 tons), Japan (37,200 tons), and Colombia (27,700 tons).

Wheat sales of 451,000 tons for the 2022/2023 marketing year, which began June 1, were primarily for unknown destinations (117,600 tons), Mexico (73,200 tons), the Philippines (69,200 tons), Switzerland (50,000 tons), and Taiwan (40,000 tons). Sales of 740,300 tons were carried over from the 2021-2022 marketing year, which ended May 31.

Exports for the period ending May 31, of 138,800 tons brought accumulated exports to 18,668,900 tons, down 25% from the prior year’s total of 24,806,600 tons. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (50,700 tons), Guatemala (25,100 tons), Mexico (24,400 tons), Costa Rica (13,200 tons), and Nigeria (12,100 tons). The 212,000 tons of wheat exported June 1 and 2 were primarily to five countries including Mexico (62,700 tons) and the Philippines (57,900 tons).

3. Record heat, ongoing showers and storms forecasted for many areas this weekend

From California to South Texas, excessive heat warnings and advisories are in place for much of the area. Daytime temperatures are expected to climb upwards of 10 to 20 degrees above normal across much of California, the Great Basin, the Southwest, and Texas, reaching triple digits in many locations, with numerous records expected to fall in the coming days, according to the National Weather Service.

Ongoing showers and storms across Kansas and Oklahoma will continue to move south and east through this morning. Severe thunderstorms, producing damaging winds, are expected across portions of Arkansas into the lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf Coast region later this morning into the afternoon. Heavy rains that will produce some localized flash flooding are also expected across parts of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas into the central Gulf Coast region today.

While the threat for severe weather looks limited, showers and storms are expected to spread into the eastern U.S. over the weekend, the National Weather Service says.

Showers and storms are also forecast for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.

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