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3 Big Things Today, June 12

Soybeans, Grains Higher Overnight; USDA Expected to Lower Stockpiles Forecasts Tuesday.

1. Soybeans, Corn Rise Overnight on Declining Crop Conditions

Soybeans and corn were higher overnight after the government lowered its rating for the U.S. crops, likely amid excessive rainfall in some parts of the Midwest.

Flood warnings have been issued in parts of central Illinois the past couple of days due to incessant rainfall that’s pushing some rivers and streams over their banks and causing ponding in low-lying areas, according to the National Weather Service. Floods are also a problem in parts of eastern Iowa, NWS maps show. The excessive precipitation likely led to the downgrade in conditions.

The U.S. corn crop was rated 77% good or excellent as of Sunday, down from 78% a week earlier, according to the USDA. About 94% of the crop had emerged.

Some 74% of soybeans earned top ratings, also down 1 percentage point from the prior week. About 83% of U.S. soybeans had emerged as of Sunday, the USDA said.

The winter wheat harvest has begun in earnest with 14% collected, up from 5% seven days earlier. Only 38% of the crop was rated good or excellent, though that’s up from 37% a week earlier, according to the government.

Soybean futures for July delivery added 7¼¢ to $9.61 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal gained $2 to $353.20 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.11¢ to 30.47¢ a pound.

Corn futures for July delivery rose 3¢ to $3.70¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for July delivery gained 1¢ to $5.15½ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures gained ¾¢ to $5.35½ a bushel.


2. USDA Likely to Lower Old-Crop Corn, Soybean Inventories Estimates

The USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report at 11 a.m. in Washington.

The government will likely peg 2017-2018 corn ending stocks at 2.166 billion bushels, down from 2.182 billion bushels forecast last month, according to the average trade estimate, as compiled by Reuters.

Soybean inventories at the end of the current marketing year are seen at 522 million bushels, down from a previous estimate of 530 million bushels.

For wheat, ending stocks for the 12 months that ended on May 31 are projected at 1.08 million, just above the USDA’s May outlook for 1.07 million bushels.

For 2018-2019, which for corn and soybeans starts on September 1 and for wheat started on June 1, the government will likely peg corn inventories at 1.663 billion bushels, down from a prior outlook for 1.682 billion.

Soybean stockpiles are seen at 417 million bushels, up slightly from last month’s USDA forecast for 415 million bushels.

Wheat inventories in 2018-2019 are pegged at 958 million bushels, up slightly from the May estimate of 955 million bushels.


3. Flash Flood Warning in Effect For Parts of Central Illinois Amid Excessive Rain

A flash flood warning is in effect for several counties in central Illinois, while many of the surrounding counties are in flood warnings or watches, according to the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorms this morning are producing heavy rainfall across the region, which is the cause of the flooding, the NWS said in a report early Tuesday morning.

The flash flood watch for the surrounding counties will last until 1 p.m. this afternoon (if it’s not extended) and includes parts of central Illinois east into Indiana.

Up to 3 inches of rain have fallen since Sunday with 5 inches falling locally in some areas, according to the agency. Another 2 inches per hour are expected for much of the affected region.

Thunderstorms are also expected in parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle; some storm are expected to become severe. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, the NWS said.

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