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3 Big Things Today, June 27

Soybeans Rise in Overnight Trading; July Looks Drier After Extremely Wet June.

1. Soybeans Higher as Investors, End Users Snap Up Cheap Supplies

Soybeans were higher as investors slowly return to the markets after a sell-off that took prices to the lowest level in more than nine years. Grains also rose overnight.

Some end users are meeting needs and investors are jumping back into the market after prices plunged to the lowest level since 2009. Prices for the past couple of sessions have attempted an overnight rebound only to be rebuffed once U.S. markets open on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Prices through the first two sessions this week were down almost 30¢ as the trade war between the U.S. progresses with no end in sight. Neither country seems willing to bend and Chinese officials reportedly said the Asian nation will not back down from a fight.

The soybean crop is rated 73% good or excellent, the highest rating for this time of year in about 30 years, according to the USDA. Traders also are looking ahead to Friday’s Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report, in which traders surveyed by Reuters said they expect the government to raise its U.S. corn and soybeans planting estimates from prior-month forecasts.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 4¾¢ to $8.92¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added $1.70 to $334.30 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.11¢ to 29.05¢ a pound.

Corn futures for July delivery rose 2¢ to $3.54½ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for September delivery gained 4¾¢ to $4.87¾ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures added 5½¢ to $4.81 a bushel.

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2. July Looks Drier in Much of Midwest After Exceptionally Wet June, CWG Says

After an exceptionally wet June in much of the northern Midwest, July is going to turn drier than normal in some areas, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Precipitation next month is forecast to be below normal, or less than 75% of average, in much of southern Iowa, the northern half of Missouri, and almost all of North Dakota, CWG said in its seasonal outlook released yesterday.

“(The) July map trended drier in the far southwestern Midwest (mainly Missouri) as well as the Northern Plains,” CWG said. “Drier August trends were primarily in the northwestern Midwest but still favor a cooler look to the Midwest.”

The biggest risks for negative corn and soybean yield impacts are, however, limited to patchy areas, mostly in Missouri, eastern Kansas, North Dakota, and Michigan, the forecaster said. Some patchy dry spots in the southern Delta may see a rebuilding of soil moisture as a wetter-than-normal pattern looks to be forming for July.

Temperatures next month are pegged at about normal, CWG said, which after a wet June will likely limit threats to crops.

As much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in the past 30 days in much of the northern Corn Belt including almost all of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana, according to the National Weather Service.

Missouri and eastern Kansas received far less rainfall than normal in the past month, and in some areas, no precipitation fell, NWS data show.

CWG said expanding rains also will ease drought conditions in areas of Texas where cotton is grown, potentially lifting national yields to near or slightly below trend. The forecaster also said a drying trend across the Northern Plains likely is too late to pose any “major threat to heading wheat” given the abundant soil moisture from recent rains.

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3. Missouri, Parts of Several States Seeing Extreme Heat This Week

Entire states and parts of others are under a heat advisory today as indexes in the central and southern Midwest jump into the triple digits.

In parts of Missouri, the heat index is expected to be around 105˚F. this afternoon. The heat is expected to continue with temperatures around 102˚F. and indexes as high as 109˚F., according to the National Weather Service.

Crops may suffer in the state where little or no rain has fallen in the past 30 days.

The heat advisory is in effect for parts of southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, the eastern halves of Kansas and Oklahoma, and almost all of Missouri. Several counties in extreme western Illinois also are included.

In southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa, heat indexes will climb to 107˚F. tomorrow, the NWS said in a report early Wednesday morning.

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