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3 Big Things Today, May 13, 2022

Soybean Futures Higher Overnight; Export Sales Hit Marketing-Year Lows.

1. Soybean Futures Rise in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures rose in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its outlook for global ending stocks and on strong demand for cooking oils.

Stockpiles of the oilseed at the end of the 2021-2022 marketing year on August 31 are now pegged by the USDA at 85.2 million metric tons, the USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report yesterday.

That’s down from the previous month’s outlook for 89.6 million metric tons.

Production this year is now forecast at 349.4 million metric tons, down from the previous projection of 350.7 million metric tons, the USDA said.

Brazil growers likely will produce 125 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2021-2022 marketing year, unchanged month-to-month. In Argentina, production is seen at 42 million tons, down from 46.2 million tons in April.  

Yesterday’s WASDE report also gave a first look at the balance sheet for 2022-2023.

Output next year is seen at 394.7 million metric tons, while ending stocks are forecast at 99.6 million metric tons, the agency said in its report.

Demand for cooking oils also is driving up prices. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were higher overnight, supporting soybeans, on strong interest from overseas buyers.

Soybean futures for July delivery rose 9 3/4¢ to $16.23½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal rose $3.50 to $399.50 a short ton, while soybean oil futures added 0.17¢ to 82.69¢ a pound.

Corn futures were up 2½¢ to $7.94 a bushel.

Wheat for May delivery lost 4¼¢ to $11.74½ a bushel while Kansas City futures rose ½¢ to $12.70½ a bushel.

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2. Export Sales Drop to Marketing-Year Lows Across the Board

Sales of corn, beans, and wheat to overseas buyers all plunged to marketing-year lows last week, according to data from the U.S. Ag Department.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on May 5 dropped to 192,700 metric tons, the USDA said.

That’s down 75% from the previous week and 80% from the prior four-week average, and also the lowest since the 2021-2022 marketing year started on September 1.

Japan was the big buyer at 132,600 metric tons, followed by South Korea at 131,700 tons and Spain at 73,700 tons. Colombia bought 57,100 tons and Canada took 41,400 tons from U.S. supplies.

The total would have been higher but an unnamed country canceled orders for 304,000 metric tons.

Sales for the 2022-2023 marketing year were reported at 46,600 metric tons, and exports for the week fell 21% to 1.5 million tons, the USDA said.

Soybean sales last week totaled 143,700 metric tons, down 80% week-to-week and 74% year-over-year, the government said.

That also was the lowest since the beginning of September.

Indonesia bought 66,200 metric tons, Japan took 61,200 tons, Mexico purchased 20,600 tons, Venezuela was in for 8,000 tons, and Malaysia purchased 5,300 tons. An unknown country nixed cargoes of 30,200 tons and Peru canceled shipments of 5,000 tons.

Sales for 2022-2023 were reported at 77,300 metric tons, and exports for the week fell 16% to 471,700 tons.

Wheat sales dropped to 14,100 metric tons, the lowest since the grain’s marketing year started on June 1, the USDA said.

The total was down 88% from the previous week and 79% from the average.

Colombia bought 40,000 metric tons, an unnamed country took 11,500 tons, South Korea was in for 3,000 tons, the Dominican Republic purchased 1,600 tons, and Mexico was in for 1,200 tons.

Nigeria canceled cargoes of 36,300 tons, Chile nixed shipments of 5,800 tons, and Japan canceled orders for 1,500 tons.

Sales for the next marketing year that starts on June 1 were much better at 124,300 tons, though exports for the seven days through May 5 totaled 240,300 tons, down 36% week-to-week, the USDA said in its report.


3. Strong Winds Expected in Northern Plains, Parts of Nebraska

Strong winds are forecast for much of North Dakota and parts of South Dakota heading into the weekend, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds in North Dakota are expected to range from 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

“High winds may move loose debris, damage property, and cause power outages,” the agency said. "Travel will be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”

In Nebraska, meanwhile, extremely dry weather likely will develop in western and north-central counties, the NWS said.

Winds will be sustained from 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 55 mph expected.

“Elevated fire weather conditions” will continue through the weekend, the agency said.

In Iowa and Illinois, meanwhile, severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight.

“The most likely timing for storms is between 3 p.m. and 9 p.m.,” the NWS said. “The primary threats are damaging winds and large hail. There’s also a marginal risk for flash flooding.”

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