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3 Big Things Today, November 1, 2022

Soybeans Surge in Overnight Trading; Weekly Corn Export Inspections Drop

1. Soybean Futures Rise Overnight, Grains Decline

Soybean futures surged in overnight trading amid persistent dry weather in parts of Argentina and cold weather in Brazil.

Dry weather will increase areas suffering from soil moisture shortages in Argentina, Don Keeney, an agricultural meteorologist with Maxar, said in a report

Crop stress will expand quickly in growing areas as dry weather persists this week, he said.

Rainfall in some northeastern growing areas in Brazil may improve moisture levels, but cool weather is likely to slow growth, Keeney said in his report. The cold weather is not likely to result in frost formation.

The U.S. soybean harvest was 88% complete as of Sunday, up from 80% a week earlier, the Department of Agriculture said in a report. That's also ahead of the prior five-year average of 78%.

About 76% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested at the start of the week, up from 61% seven days earlier, USDA said. That's well ahead of the average of 64% for this time of the year.

Wheat futures plunged overnight despite a mostly bullish crop-progress report that showed only 28% of the U.S. winter crop was in good or excellent condition as of Sunday, the agency said in its first winter-wheat conditions report of the season.

Only 24% of wheat in Kansas, the biggest producer of the grain, earned top ratings.

Rainfall is expected in western Nebraska before moving into parts of Kansas, western Oklahoma, and western Texas, Maxar's Keeney said.

"Rains in central areas later this week will improve moisture for wheat, although more will still be needed, especially in north (and) west areas," the forecaster said.

Soybean futures for January delivery added 14½¢ to $14.33 ¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained $1.30 to $429.40 a short ton, while soybean oil rose ¢ to 0.65 to 73.86¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery fell 3¢ to $6.88 ½ a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery dropped 11¼¢ to $8.71 a bushel, while Kansas City futures declined 9½¢ to 9.69 ½ a bushel.

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2. Export Inspections of Corn and Beans Drop Week-to-Week

Inspections of corn and beans for overseas delivery fell week-to-week while wheat assessments increased, according to data from USDA.

Corn inspections in the seven days that ended on Oct. 27 dropped to 422,288 metric tons from 472,594 tons a week earlier, the agency said in a report.

That's well below the 671,085 metric tons assessed during the same period a year earlier.

Examinations of soybeans for offshore delivery declined to 2.57 million metric tons from 2.92 million tons the previous week, the Ag Department said.

The total was close to the 2.68 million tons assessed during the same week last year.

Wheat inspections last week were reported at 137,082 metric tons, up from 133,319 tons a week earlier and the 130,721 tons that were examined during the same week in 2021, the government said.

Since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, the agency has inspected 4.19 million metric tons of corn for export, well below the 5.47 million tons during the same timeframe a year earlier.

Soybean inspections since the beginning of September now stand at 10.2 million metric tons, down from 11.3 million tons during the same period last year, the agency said.

Wheat assessments since the start of the grain's marketing year on June 1 are now at 9.65 million metric tons, just below the 9.67 million tons examined at the same point a year earlier, USDA said in its report.

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3. Red-Flag Warnings Issued For Much of South Dakota

Red-flag warnings have been issued for much of south Dakota and parts of Wyoming and Nebraska amid extremely dry weather, according to the National Weather Service.

In central South Dakota, winds will be sustained from 10 to 20 mph with gusts of up to 30 mph both today and tomorrow, NWS said in a report early this morning.

Relative humidity both days is expected to drop to around 15%.

"The combination of breezy winds, low humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions over portions of central and south-central South Dakota," the agency said.

In western Kansas and eastern Colorado, meanwhile, a fire-weather watch will be in effect this afternoon and Wednesday amid strong winds gusting to 30 mph and humidity at about 13%.

Outdoor burning is not advised due to the dry conditions, NWS said.

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